Oscar predictions 2006

And here we go... lots of predictions this year for "unpredictable" things happening. The nominees were much easier to forecast than Oscarwatchers were expecting and I think the winners will be to. Honestly I hope so, because in most cases the frontrunners will make for a very nice winners' circle.

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain; Capote; Crash; Good Night, and Good Luck.; Munich

Brokeback Mountain has won the top awards from BAFTA, the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild, the Writers Guild, the Golden Globes, the Venice Film Festival and the Broadcast, Boston, Dallas-Fort Worth, London, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, Southeastern U.S. and Vancouver critics groups. It has the highest ranking among Best Picture nominees on both the Village Voice critics poll and the Film Comment critics poll and it's the highest grossing nominee as well. It's not just a great movie, it's a great zeitgeist movie. That's what Oscar really loves. Even in such a great year for nominees anything else winning would be a mistake for the record books.

Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman; Terrence Howard; Heath Ledger; Joaquin Phoenix; David Strathairn

Hoffman is the actor's actor. Generally unrecognized by award groups until his work in Capote he's been on a tear all year, and it won't end here.

Best Actress
Judi Dench; Felicity Huffman; Keira Knightley; Charlize Theron; Reese Witherspoon

Possibly the only category with a "superstar" winner: was there anyone Witherspoon didn't charm with the best country music film performance since Sissy Spacek 25 years ago?

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney; Matt Dillon; Paul Giamatti; Jake Gyllenhaal; William Hurt

The one where no one knows anything. But Clooney is the golden boy of the moment, with good reason. (My nagging doubt: when actors prove themselves as filmmakers they usually don't win an Oscar for acting.)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams; Catherine Keener; Frances McDormand; Rachel Weisz; Michelle Williams

The name that keeps going through my head is Marisa Tomei, who pulled off a shocker of a win 13 years ago that many people credit to video screeners. If enough people watch Junebug then the same thing might happen for Adams. But I fear the movie is too small, and The Constant Gardener is too well liked, and Weisz becomes the latest actress nobody thought would win an Oscar to win an Oscar.

Best Director
George Clooney; Paul Haggis; Ang Lee; Bennett Miller; Steven Spielberg

Lee. A master filmmaker winning an Oscar for one of his best films doesn't happen very often. Enjoy it.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain; Capote; The Constant Gardener; A History of Violence; Munich

I hope Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana have a good speech ready when Brokeback wins.

Best Original Screenplay
Crash; Good Night, and Good Luck.; Match Point; The Squid and the Whale; Syriana

Crash has had a lock on this for months, unfortunately.

Best Animated Film
Howl's Moving Castle; Tim Burton's Corpse Bride; Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Wallace & Gromit has to be one of the night's surest locks.

Best Documentary
Darwin's Nightmare; Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room; March of the Penguins; Murderball; Street Fight

I wouldn't consider those mega-grossing Penguins locks, but I think they'll, uh, march off with the win anyway...

Best Foreign Language Film
Don't Tell (Italy); Joyeux Noel (France); Paradise Now (Palestine); Sophie Scholl-The Final Days (Germany); Tsotsi (South Africa)

I was wrong with this at the Globes but I'm sticking by Tsotsi for the Oscar (South Africa's first after two consecutive nominations).

Best Original Song
"In the Deep" (Crash); "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" (Hustle & Flow); "Travelin' Thru" (Transamerica)

I'm actually looking forward to the performances for once but I feel incredibly uncertain about who will win. Dolly Parton (who wrote Travelin') is the respected vet, but things haven't been going so well for vets lately in this category. Pimp is showcased the best in its film, it's undeniably catchy and voters have already embraced rap with Eminem's win three years ago. But Bird York has been promoting her song like crazy and Crash is nominated for Best Picture. I want Dolly to get her Oscar (imagine how great her speech would be!) but I think In the Deep takes it.

Best Cinematography
Batman Begins; Brokeback Mountain; Good Night, and Good Luck.; Memoirs of a Geisha; The New World

Memoirs of a Geisha won at BAFTA and the Cinematographers' Guild but the whole Oscar body votes on this and I think it'll be Brokeback's one tech win.

Best Editing
Cinderella Man; The Constant Gardener; Crash; Munich; Walk the Line

Crash. :(

Best Original Score
Brokeback Mountain; The Constant Gardener; Memoirs of a Geisha; Munich; Pride & Prejudice

John Williams has two nominations this year and has won five times in the past. I think he'll win again for Geisha (but that Brokeback score is awfully catchy...).

Best Visual Effects
The Chronicles of Narnia; King Kong; War of the Worlds

King Kong

Best Art Direction
Good Night, and Good Luck.; Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire; King Kong; Memoirs of a Geisha; Pride & Prejudice

Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Costume Design
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory; Memoirs of a Geisha; Mrs. Henderson Presents; Pride & Prejudice; Walk the Line

Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Sound
The Chronicles of Narnia; King Kong; Memoirs of a Geisha; Walk the Line; War of the Worlds

Walk the Line

Best Sound Editing
King Kong; Memoirs of a Geisha; War of the Worlds

King Kong

Best Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia; Cinderella Man; Star Wars: Episode III

Cinderella Man

According to my predictions Brokeback Mountain will win four awards and Crash and Memoirs of a Geisha will win three. King Kong and Walk the Line take two.

What a weird year.