Union Pride

If I was going to predict the five nominees for the Best Picture Oscar today I would say:

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Walk the Line

With the somewhat surprising likely nominees being Capote and Crash. But that's what's indicated by this week's nominations from the significant film guilds: the DGA, the WGA, the SAG and the PGA.

This has been a confusing year when it comes to award predictions. A lot of movies have been disappointing, the Golden Globe selections were unusual and the critics united behind Brokeback Mountain but gave very little indication of what else might be embraced.

Those five films listed above were all selected by the Producers Guild for their top award. The Directors Guild nominated the directors of all the films, except Walk the Line. They opted instead to recognize Steven Spielberg for Munich, the only other film which I think has a serious chance for a Best Picture Oscar nomination.

Usually the Directors are more correct than the Producers, since for three years running the films nominated by DGA have exactly matched Oscar's Best Picture finalists, while the PGA selections have been more erratic. But such facts are reliable only to a point. And the momentum is not really on Munich's side.

Munich failed to secure any mentions from SAG (not a big surprise, since the film's performances are being overlooked everywhere) or a spot on the WGA's list (more significant, since scribes Eric Roth and Tony Kushner are writing icons). Meanwhile, Capote and Crash, previously viewed as underdogs after their Golden Globe snubs, scored with every single guild (as did long standing favorites Brokeback and Good Night). Guild voters are not the same as Oscar voters, but they're a closer approximation than Globe voters are. It says a lot.

Munich also had a disappointing showing at the Globes and has not been widely embraced by critics (of course neither was Crash, but industry people seem to love it anyway).

Anyway, such is the current state of the award race. The only major announcements left before the Oscar nominations will come from the British Academy of Film and Television and the National Society of Film Critics, but they have little to no bearing on the Oscar race.

As for reactions to the Guild noms:

I am upset at the level of attention Crash is receiving, particularly from the DGA (David Cronenberg's omission for his work on A History of Violence is appalling).

I was very pleased to see the script for The 40 Year-Old Virgin in the WGA original screenplay race. They have recognized smart, mainstream comedies in the past (Mean Girls and Clueless come to mind), but it was still a nice surprise.

The SAG nominations look a lot like the Golden Globe acting nominations, although there were notable snubs for History of Violence's Maria Bello, Match Point's Scarlett Johansson and Mrs. Henderson Presents' Bob Hoskins. Crash's Don Cheadle collected his first major nomination this year while Amy Adams' surprise nomination for Junebug is the single best nomination of the year, possibly ever.

In SAG's big ensemble contest (kinda like their version of "Best Picture") Brokeback, Good Night, Capote and Crash will face off with surprise nominee Hustle & Flow (which has a lot of decent actors but such poorly developed female roles it doesn't really merit inclusion). But I'm a little perplexed by the "cast" lists up on SAG's website. Why, for example, are Kate Mara, Roberta Maxwell and Scott Michael Campbell not included in the Brokeback Mountain ensemble? All of their contributions were at least equal to the slightly more recognizable Anna Faris. And where is Amy Ryan in the Capote cast?

SAG's TV nominations aren't worth much discussion although I'm very pleased to see Boston Legal competing as a comedy, I hope the switch for award consideration for that show is permanent. And it's sort of amusing that although Grey's Anatomy is clearly becoming a major award force, series lead Ellen Pompeo still goes unrecognized.