Oscar Nominee Predictions 2005

I've been doing this since 1998 and I can't say I've gotten any better. It's not a science, but it's fun.

For those of you who are new (or otherwise have no idea what this is about) I list predictions for nominees in every Oscar category except the shorts. I give myself two, and only two, alternate selections that represent what I think will be in place if one of my actual predictions is wrong. I'm usually about 70% right on straight-up predictions, closer to 80% when alternates are included. At my best I'm in the 90% and over range with the top six categories.

These are only predictions. They are not reflective of what I WANT to be nominated (in many cases I'll be angry/annoyed/disappointed when/if some of these things ARE nominated). [For a look at what I'd nominate click here.]

That's the deal, take it for what it's worth. Tuesday morning we'll get the real list.

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Walk the Line

Alternates: The Constant Gardener; Munich

This is what I've been thinking since the guilds weighed in with their choices. No reason to change my mind now.

Best Director
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
David Cronenberg (A History of Violence)
Paul Haggis (Crash)
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Bennett Miller (Capote)

Alternates: Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener); Steven Spielberg (Munich)

The only other serious contender is James Mangold for Walk the Line. Anyone else would be a bit of a surprise at this point. Spielberg was DGA nominated but he also received guild, but not Oscar, noms for Amistad and Empire of the Sun and the reaction to Munich has been closer to those than any of his other Oscar contenders. Cronenberg has been getting buzz almost all year long as the overdue arty pick, I hope it happens. And Meirelles is looking for his second nom on his second film after surprising pretty much everyone with his nomination for City of God two years ago. Haggis and Miller would be Oscar nominated for directorial debuts.

Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck.)

Alternates: Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man); Ralph Fiennes (The Constant Gardener)

Tough, tough category. Some think Strathairn could be this year's Paul Giamatti (snubbed because he's not "flashy" enough, but I think playing a real person will help him) and Howard is still an underdog. Fiennes, with no Globe or SAG attention for his work, would be the real upset.

Best Actress
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Zhang Ziyi (Memoirs of a Geisha)

Alternates: Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger); Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice)

Joan Allen is becoming a popular prediction despite her lack of prior nominations this season. It's a bit hard for me to believe in a nomination for Zhang but she surprised me with Globe and SAG noms. I'm waiting for a real surprise here. Maybe Laura Linney from The Squid and the Whale (even though it's a supporting performance) or Maria Bello bumped up from supporting for A History of Violence?

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Terrence Howard (Crash)

Alternates: Don Cheadle (Crash); Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)

Picking Howard here might be foolish, Cheadle could easily be up for his second straight nom instead. This category is also ripe for a left-field pick like Frank Langella from Good Night, and Good Luck., someone from A History of Violence or another player from Syriana.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Frances McDormand (North Country)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)

Alternates: Maria Bello (A History of Violence); Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes)

Before SAG I didn't even think a nomination for Adams was possible. I really hope Oscar voters watched Junebug. Since they need the support of Oscar's indie-friendly voters I fear that Adams and Bello can't both make it in, so I'm going with the more endearing performance (plus Bello has been undeservedly snubbed in the past). Speaking of the previously snubbed, I don't expect Scarlett Johansson to actually get in here. This time that's a good thing.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich

Alternates: Pride & Prejudice; Walk the Line

Munich is controversial and History of Violence could be overlooked completely but will writers think nominating Walk the Line is worth it?

Best Original Screenplay
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
Syriana

Alternates: Cinderella Man; Hustle & Flow

Syriana didn't campaign in this category (the studio didn't know Oscar officials had classified the script as original, not adapted, until right before voting closed), so it may miss out. But here's hoping Woody Allen's overrated Match Point script misses instead.

Best Animated Film
Howl's Moving Castle
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Alternates: Chicken Little; Madagascar

It's doubtful the three best animated films of the year actually will be nominated but will the usually taste-challenged animated film voters opt for Disney (Chicken Little, which came out later) or DreamWorks (Madagascar, the highest grossing animated film of the year) and who will they pass over (Burton or Miyazaki)?

Best Foreign Language Film
Fateless (Hungary)
Joyeux Noel (France)
Paradise Now (Palestine)
Sophie Scholl-The Final Days (Germany)
Tsotsi (South Africa)

Alternates: C.R.A.Z.Y. (Canada); Two Sons of Francisco (Brazil)

I did well in this category one year...

Best Documentary (Feature Length)
The Boys of Baraka
Enron: The Smartest Guys In the Room
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Unknown White Male

Alternates: The Devil and Daniel Johnston; Mad Hot Ballroom

This always seems easier than it actually is. The list of possibilities isn't very long but there's always an oddball choice (or two, or three).

Best Art Direction
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk the Line

Alternates: Cinderella Man; The New World

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is a popular pick too but I don't know where to put it.

Best Cinematography
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha

Alternates: March of the Penguins; Munich

Batman Begins was also nominated by the cinematographers' guild and if The New World is getting any Oscar noms it might be here.

Best Costume Design
Casanova
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
Walk the Line

Alternates: Brokeback Mountain; The Producers

Best Editing
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.

Alternates: March of the Penguins; Munich

And it might be foolish to ignore Walk the Line...

Best Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia
Cinderella Man
The New World

Alternates: Mrs. Henderson Presents; Star Wars: Episode III

Best Original Score
Brokeback Mountain
Cinderella Man
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Pride & Prejudice

Alternates: King Kong; March of the Penguins

Best Original Song
"Hustle & Flow" (Hustle & Flow)
"In the Deep" (Crash)
"The Remains of the Day" (Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride)
"Same in Any Language" (Elizabethtown)
"Travelin' Thru" (Transamerica)

Alternates: "Mad Hot Ballroom" (Mad Hot Ballroom); "There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway" (The Producers)

Last year voters went a little foreign, so "Dicholo" from The Constant Gardener is a possibility if that happens this year. The only other key contender I can see is "Can't Take It In" from Chronicles of Narnia. It's the first time we actually have a list of "eligible" songs, so predicting this should be a little easier than normal.

Best Sound
Batman Begins
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Walk the Line

Alternates: The Chronicles of Narnia; War of the Worlds

The one everybody waits for...

Best Sound Editing
The Chronicles of Narnia
King Kong
War of the Worlds

Alternates: Star Wars: Episode III; Walk the Line

Best Visual Effects
King Kong
Star Wars: Episode III
War of the Worlds

Alternates: The Chronicles of Narnia; Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire