Golden Globe predictions

Unlike the Oscars, predicting the Golden Globes is not something I do every year. But since I have this blog now I figured I might as well give it a shot. I would not put money on these predictions, since it is the first of the major award shows the Globes are notoriously unpredictable, and in most categories there are at least two contenders I would place equal odds on.

You can see the actual winners beginning at 8 pm tonight on NBC (if you aren't busy watching night two of the 24 season premiere on Fox).

Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Brokeback Mountain; The Constant Gardener; Good Night, and Good Luck.; A History of Violence; Match Point
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain

Some observers have already conceded everything to Brokeback Mountain this year. Others are anxiously waiting for it to stumble. The Globes have made some famously random choices in this category (Scent of a Woman!?) but I don't really think this will be one of those years.

Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)
Nominees: Mrs. Henderson Presents; Pride & Prejudice; The Producers; The Squid and the Whale; Walk the Line
Prediction: Walk the Line

If the Johnny Cash biopic, the only genuine Best Picture Oscar contender in this bunch, loses it would be one of the show's biggest shockers.

Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man); Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote); Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow); Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain); David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
Prediction: Hoffman

This looks like a two man race: Hoffman vs. Ledger. Hoffman has been the more popular pick so far (which mostly means critics' awards) but it will depend on whether voters go with their head (for the showier Hoffman) or hearts (for the more emotionally impactful Ledger). Whoever wins could be on their way to an Oscar. Or not.

Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Nominees: Pierce Brosnan (The Matador); Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale); Johnny Depp (Charlie and the Chocolate Factory); Nathan Lane (The Producers); Cillian Murphy (Breakfast on Pluto); Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
Prediction: Phoenix

None of these guys were as good as the unnominated Steve Carell was in The 40 Year-Old Virgin, but Oscar contender Phoenix should get this pretty easily.

Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Maria Bello (A History of Violence); Felicity Huffman (Transamerica); Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof); Charlize Theron (North Country); Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Prediction: Huffman

If the voters are just looking for the best performance they'll go with Bello but since she's more of a supporting player the best bet is Huffman, who has the showiest role by far (and a good chance at winning two awards tonight).

Actress (Comedy or Musical)
Nominees: Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents); Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice); Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale); Sarah Jessica Parker (The Family Stone); Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Prediction: Witherspoon

Although Dench is formidable competition Witherspoon will be tough to beat. Here's hoping she's on her way to an Oscar.

Supporting Actor
Nominees: George Clooney (Syriana); Matt Dillon (Crash); Will Ferrell (The Producers); Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man); Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Prediction: Clooney

This is tricky, because this year's It Boy, Clooney, could score in other categories and miss here. In that case anyone but Ferrell (what a strange nomination) could take it. A Giamatti win would automatically make him Oscar's frontrunner. A Dillon win would be another scary sign of growing support for Crash.

Supporting Actress
Nominees: Scarlett Johansson (Match Point); Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes); Frances McDormand (North Country); Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener); Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Prediction: Weisz

I really don't know what will happen here but everyone who pays attention to this stuff knows that Weisz is campaigning very hard and it seems like that is paying off (plus Globe voters really liked her movie). The Globes usually like 'em young, so count out the older ladies (although MacLaine should win among this group) but Johansson wasn't good enough in her movie (although neither was last year's winner: Natalie Portman) and Williams only wins if the Globes go Brokeback-crazy.

Director
Nominees: Woody Allen (Match Point); George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck.); Peter Jackson (King Kong); Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain); Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener); Steven Spielberg (Munich)
Prediction: Lee

Although voters may want to shake things up and go with Clooney I think Ang Lee is going to be really tough to beat this year (even though he already won this category--for Crouching Tiger).

Screenplay
Nominees: Brokeback Mountain; Crash; Good Night, and Good Luck.; Match Point; Munich
Prediction: Crash

I don't want to predict this but I fear Brokeback won't win everything and I think Good Night is going to fall behind as a screenplay contender.

Foreign Film
Nominees: Kung Fu Hustle; Master of the Crimson Armor (The Promise); Merry Christmas (Joyeux Noel); Paradise Now; Tsotsi
Prediction: Tsotsi

Kung Fu Hustle has the most name recognition but I think the South African Tsotsi will emerge as a popular choice (it's gritty and sentimental) and go on to win the Oscar as well (in a rare Globes/Oscar foreign film match up).

Other categories:
Original Song: A Love That Will Never Grow Old (Brokeback Mountain)
Original Score: Brokeback Mountain

TV:
Drama Series
Nominees: Commander in Chief (ABC); Grey's Anatomy (ABC); Lost (ABC); Prison Break (Fox); Rome (HBO)
Prediction: Grey's Anatomy

Anybody's game and Lost hasn't won yet (Nip/Tuck won last year). But Grey's Anatomy is the hotter show now and that's what Globe voters usually like.

Comedy Series
Nominees: Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); Desperate Housewives (ABC); Entourage (HBO); Everybody Hates Chris (UPN); My Name is Earl (NBC); Weeds (Showtime)
Prediction: My Name is Earl

Since they didn't even nominate the best possible candidate (Fox's Arrested Development), I fully expect the worst of the nominees to win. Although Entourage is a pretty awful, and trendy, pick as well. And Weeds is the kind of show Globe voters would pick just to make themselves look cooler than anyone else.

Drama Actor
Nominees: Patrick Dempsey (Grey's Anatomy); Matthew Fox (Lost); Hugh Laurie (House); Wentworth Miller (Prison Break); Kiefer Sutherland (24)
Prediction: Laurie

The Globes will actually beat Emmy to the punch with this one (even though Emmys were the first to a nomination).

Drama Actress
Nominees: Patricia Arquette (Medium); Glenn Close (The Shield); Geena Davis (Commander in Chief); Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer); Polly Walker (Rome)
Prediction: Sedgwick

Lots of choices here. Davis would be a lock if her show were hotter. Close would be a lock if she wasn't yesterday's news. Since Arquette already won the Emmy and Walker's show has very little heat Sedgwick seems like the fresh pick.

Comedy Actor
Nominees: Zach Braff (Scrubs); Steve Carell (The Office); Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm); Jason Lee (My Name is Earl); Charlie Sheen (Two and a Half Men)
Prediction: Carell

David deserves it, Lee is the favorite, Braff shouldn't be underestimated but I think Carell will wind up with the Globe that he deserves. Just not in the category he deserves it.

Comedy Actress
Nominees: Marcia Cross (Desperate Housewives); Teri Hatcher (Desperate Housewives); Felicity Huffman (Desperate Housewives); Eva Longoria (Desperate Housewives); Mary-Louise Parker (Weeds)
Prediction: Huffman

Since Huffman is likely to win in the film category that could give voters the excuse they're looking for to be different and go with the exceptional Parker. But giving Felicity two awards is good press as well, and given her season so far she deserves it.

Supporting Actor
Nominees: Naveen Andrews (Lost); Paul Newman (Empire Falls); Jeremy Piven (Entourage); Randy Quaid (Elvis); Donald Sutherland (Commander in Chief)
Prediction: Newman

These grab-bag categories are ridiculous.

Supporting Actress
Nominees: Candice Bergen (Boston Legal); Camryn Manheim (Elvis); Sandra Oh (Grey's Anatomy); Elizabeth Perkins (Weeds); Joanne Woodward (Empire Falls)
Prediction: Oh

These grab-bag categories are ridiculous. But Oh seems like a likely winner.

Other Categories:
Miniseries or TV Movie: Warm Springs (HBO)
Miniseries or TV Movie Actor: Kenneth Branagh (Warm Springs)
Miniseries or TV Movie Actress: S. Epatha Merkerson (Lackawanna Blues)