Thursday, May 19, 2005

Fall Schedule Wrap

Now that all six networks have finished outlining their plans for the fall it's worth reflecting on a couple of significant trends.

Quirky comedy is in - If your show was facing possible cancellation it helped to be a quirky, single camera comedy. NBC renewed The Office, ABC will bring back Jake in Progress and Fox said yes to more Arrested Development and Bernie Mac. Many low-rated traditional comedies weren't so lucky (8 Simple Rules, My Wife and Kids, Listen Up, Committed, Life on a Stick).

Low rated drama is out - Many of the season's unique but struggling dramas got the ax: Joan of Arcadia, Eyes, Kevin Hill, Jack & Bobby, American Dreams, Revelations, even Carnivale on HBO. Only UPN's Veronica Mars received a reprise. Maybe the mainstream success of Lost and Desperate Housewives has something to do with it. The networks probably appreciate that comedy is tough right now, but dramas can succeed. So tough luck if you don't.

Reality is on the wane... - For the second straight season all the networks tried to avoid reality as much as possible in selecting their fall schedules. Yes the usual suspects are all there (Survivor, Top Model, Apprentice, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition), and ABC brought back Wife Swap and Supernanny as well, but NBC is holding off on Fear Factor, Bachelor fans will have to wait awhile for the next proposal and both Fox and WB have no reality on the fall schedule at all.

Only NBC seems hot on the genre with Three Wishes and Apprentice: Martha Stewart joining their line-up (and The Biggest Loser returning as well). If too much reality looks like a sign of weakness NBC's schedule isn't likely to change that perception.

... but no, sadly, it's not dead - Just check out the networks' summer schedule. The hot season for movies is the dumping ground for TV and it's filled with reality, reality and more reality (or as UPN calls Top Model: dramality). There's also plenty of unscripted projects standing by at each network to fill the holes left by next season's scripted failures.

TV's latest genre of choice is sci-fi/horror - No less than three alien invasion dramas (ABC's Invasion, CBS' Threshold, NBC's Fathom) will hit the airwaves next fall. And WB is promising scares with Supernatural, while ABC hopes to generate some X-Files sparks with The Night Stalker and CBS seems to be doing Medium Jr. with The Ghost Whisperer. All good news to me, TV has been seriously lacking in a good spooky hour since The X-Files left the air three years ago.

It's interesting that this has been widely attributed to the success of Lost. My guess is the most successful of these new shows will capture not only Lost's mysterious vibe but also its winning character development.

Desperate Housewives didn't start a trend - Although there had been quite a few in development there is barely a single soap opera or female driven comedy on the schedule. ABC has new half hour Hot Properties with four female leads and UPN is introducing Sex, Lies & Secrets (the crudest possible simplification of what makes Housewives a hit) but they seem more inspired by Designing Women and Melrose Place respectively.

Pushing it a bit further one could argue ABC's female President drama Commander-in-Chief or WB's four sisters in the city series Related fit the bill, and Fox's high concept Reunion features an ongoing murder mystery and soapy elements, but it looks like the producers of Housewives don't need to worry about crude knockoffs harming their baby.

Breaking it down day by day:

Sundays look almost as the same as they do right now, with West Wing entering the race as a wildcard. ABC is all but guaranteed continued dominance there.

Mondays at 8 will see Fox's quality combo of Arrested Development/Kitchen Confidential taking on CBS' more traditional King of Queens/How I Met Your Mother. NBC will try to counter with Fathom and ABC has somewhat oddly decided to slot Wife Swap before the final season of Monday Night Football. CBS is the obvious favorite but maybe a surprise is in store.

Tuesdays will have an interesting battle at 9 between Fox's hot House (without an American Idol lead-in), CBS' strong Amazing Race and ABC's wildcard Commander-in-Chief. NBC's combo of My Name is Earl and The Office seems poised to take a beating. And if Commander-in-Chief fails that would be bad news for Boston Legal which faces potentially strong CBS suburban crime show Close to Home and dominant Law & Order: SVU.

As I've been mentioning all week Wednesdays at 9 could be a bloodbath. As long as Lost doesn't face a sophomore slump the four new shows up against it (E-Ring, Criminal Minds, Head Cases and Related) will have a tough time finding viewers. And UPN is sending cult favorite Veronica Mars into the slot as well, a tough place to prove your network's surprise renewal was justified. Criminal Minds and Head Cases are probably headed for short runs but little stands in the way of NBC's Apprentice: Martha Stewart at 8 and that could help E-Ring.

CBS is sure to keep a strong hold on Thursdays but the 8 o'clock battle of Survivor/Joey/Alias/The OC/Smallville/Everybody Hates Chris is one of the most interesting across all six networks. None of the shows can top Survivor but the race for second place could be interesting. New shows Night Stalker and Reunion will have to work hard to pull viewers away from CSI and The Apprentice at 9.

Fridays are always dull but the 8 o'clock hour could generate sparks as CBS' Ghost Whisperer takes on reality on NBC (Three Wishes) and ABC (Supernanny).

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