Oscars are pretty

So it has actually been a fairly interesting Oscar season. Near the end of last year there was a lot of talk that this year's race was "wide open" and some people even believed foreign, animated and documentary films might find their way into the best picture race (yeah, right).

That didn't happen, but some other unexpected things did. Two veteran directors actually delivered: Scorsese's The Aviator was brash and entertaining and helped erase some of the backlash that built following Gangs of New York, and Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby snuck into the race at the last moment (less than a year after Mystic River earned six nominations) and has been building momentum ever since. Meanwhile, Alexander Payne's Sideways essentially swept the critics prizes to become the indie champion of 2004.

As the races shaped up they also opened up. It was initially difficult to declare a frontrunner, but now there seems to be more agreement than usual on who will actually win the awards.

This year, if the Oscars do what I (and many others) predict, they'll honor one actor who has been a frontrunner since September and another who is long overdue for a win, an actress who many never expected to win one award (let alone two in five years) and another whose first win will reinforce her status as a future legend, and a contemporary character drama for the first time since American Beauty won best picture in 2000 (and before that The Silence of the Lambs in 1992).

They will also, once again, ignore a living legend.

Original Screenplay
Who will/should win: Charlie Kaufman (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

One of the most distinctive screenwriters working today looks likely to pick up his first Oscar (after two previous nominations) for his best work yet. But the film has been woefully overlooked in much of the year's awards races and general wisdom says that the early-2004 release date was a mistake. Best Picture hopeful The Aviator is also in this category but if Kaufman loses it will likely be to the script for message movie Hotel Rwanda.

Adapted Screenplay
Who will/should win: Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor (Sideways)

This one has always seemed like a no-brainer. But the momentum behind Million Dollar Baby represents a serious threat. Still, Sideways has been collecting screenwriting prizes all over the place (even at the BAFTAs, where it wasn't even nominated for any other awards) and this category gives voters their best chance to recognize what is clearly one of the year's best films.
Confession: Before Sunset is nominated here and it's the only film nominated in a major category that I have not seen.

Supporting Actress
Who will win: Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)
Who should win: Virginia Madsen (Sideways)

This is generally viewed as a very close race between Blanchett and Madsen. Some point to Madsen's struggling-actress-revives-career personal story that will resonate with voters (then why didn't she win at the Screen Actors Guild?). Some say Blanchett will have many more chances to win in the future (it's worth remembering Meryl Streep's first win was as a supporting actress). Both have flashy roles: Madsen delivered a killer monologue directly to the camera and made it feel like it came from her heart while Blanchett pulled off the seemingly impossible task of playing Katharine Hepburn without getting slapped with the "impersonation" label.

I consider the performances essentially equal (and would say Kinsey's Laura Linney is on par with both) but slightly prefer Madsen. I expect most voters will slightly prefer Blanchett, not just because she's playing a Hollywood legend, but also because she'll be a great contradiction to that supposed "supporting actress curse."

Supporting Actor
Who will win: Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby)
Who should win: Liev Schreiber (The Manchurian Candidate)
But he's not nominated, so: Thomas Haden Church (Sideways)

After three nominations (and several films he should've been nominated for: Nurse Betty, Unforgiven and Glory, to name three) it looks like Morgan Freeman will finally get an Oscar. His biggest competition seems to be breakthrough actor Clive Owen in Closer. Even though Thomas Haden Church was more inventive at playing a cad (granted, with better material to work with), Owen has an edge since he's British and never starred in a U.S. sitcom. But Freeman is a respected actor who has never won and delivers a great performance in a true awards season darling. He'll be hard to beat.

Actress
Who will win: Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)
Who should win: Uma Thurman (Kill Bill Vol. 2)
But she's not nominated, so: Swank

The only reason there is any doubt at all about whether or not Swank will win is because she won an Oscar in 2000 for Boys Don't Cry. Even then people thought she was too new, the film was too indie, she had Beverly Hills 90210 on her resume for god's sake. But she proved the doubters wrong. Then people said it was a fluke, she'll never do it again. Never mind solid work in genre films like The Gift and Insomnia. Again she proved them wrong, with a performance every bit as great, possibly better, than her incredible breakthrough.

There's an attempt in the media to make this a race between Swank and Annette Bening, because Bening was the initial frontrunner in 2000 for American Beauty. Bening's work in Being Julia is strong but the film is not. She's lucky she got the nomination.

Swank's real competition is Imelda Staunton, who is so motherly and sweet and saintly in Vera Drake that her performance stole the dark hearts of film critics. It helped that the film is bleak and British. It will help with Oscar voters that her character is tortured (she cries a lot) and British. If Staunton wins it will send a clear message to actresses like Swank: don't bother being that good if you've already won.

For the record, the other two nominees (Kate Winslet in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Catalina Sandino Moreno in Maria Full of Grace) were two of my personal favorites this year. But their films, unfortunately, are not overall Oscar favorites.

Actor
Who will win: Jamie Foxx (Ray)
Who should win: Paul Giamatti (Sideways)
But he's not nominated, so: Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)

I liked Foxx’s performance (and his lead performance in Collateral) and I think he’s a very fine actor. He has been the clear frontrunner in this race ever since people saw the trailers for Ray and it's to his credit that he has maintained that position in one of the strongest years for lead actors in memory. He has also helped ensure his win with pandering, obnoxiously "entertaining" acceptance speeches at other award shows. Oscar watchers don't really like sure things and have tried to create some doubt: maybe Leonardo DiCaprio or Clint Eastwood will be helped by the overall support of their films. But consider the obvious: Jamie Foxx already carried his entire movie to a best picture nomination. He's unstoppable.

Director
Who will win: Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
Who should win: Michel Gondry (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)
But he's not nominated, so: Alexander Payne (Sideways)
Who should've won several times already: Martin Scorsese

What a dilemma. Scorsese is clearly one of film's masters. He's lauded for his work on crime films and has an equally impressive body of work in "un-Scorsese-like" material (see Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore, The King of Comedy, After Hours, The Age of Innocence). Conventional wisdom says he should've won years ago, and if he were to win for The Aviator it would be a cop out since it's not a very "Scorsese" movie.

What a load of crap. The Aviator's joyous embrace of all things golden about Hollywood, and story of an outsider forcing his way in with fast talk and bold ideas, is pure Scorsese. And the visuals and performances are as impressive as in any other great Scorsese.

Yet there's the problem of Clint Eastwood. Sure he’s an actor and sure he already has an Oscar, but he provided one of the year's most distinctive directing jobs on Million Dollar Baby. I'm still not sure which of these two men will win. It will be painful to watch Scorsese lose yet again. But all things equal, based strictly on the work, I think I'd vote for Eastwood. And Oscar voters probably will too.

Picture
What will win: Million Dollar Baby
What should win: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
But that's not nominated, so: Sideways

The "wide open" year very quickly became a three picture race between The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby and Sideways. As the critics’ favorite, Sideways can be counted out. As the Hollywood epic, The Aviator should be a sure thing. But there are nagging doubts, and Million Dollar Baby is powerful stuff.

If last year wasn't the anointed Lord of the Rings year I think Mystic River would've won the top prize. For Eastwood to return the very next year with an even better film is remarkable. Many people predict a possible split between Aviator and Baby in the director and picture races. If that happens I'd hope it will come down in favor of Scorsese and Baby. Ultimately though I think the Oscars will take a rare detour from their conventional selections and reward a contemporary, character-driven film. One that despite its dark tone has significant mainstream, emotional appeal. And that's not such a bad thing.