The good news is that a lot of Oscar nominees are expanding this weekend: Pan's Labyrinth, The Queen, Volver and Letters From Iwo Jima are all adding screens, Dreamgirls is still in wide release and The Departed is getting a full on re-release.
The bad news is there are new movies opening as well. I've reviewed Catch and Release and Blood and Chocolate. Smokin' Aces isn't supposed to be much better and Epic Movie, which surely is what it is, didn't screen for critics.
Friday, January 26, 2007
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
How I Did
Best Picture
Four out of five (Babel, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen)
Dreamgirls obviously missed out and Letters From Iwo Jima, which I had as an alternate, got in.
Best Director
Four out of five (Clint Eastwood, Stephen Frears, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Martin Scorsese)
I thought Bill Condon might be vulnerable but I never would’ve predicted Dreamgirls missing Best Picture, which makes his absence here more understandable. My alternate pick Paul Greengrass (United 93) was the token nominee of a film not up for Best Picture.
Best Actor
Three and a half out of five (Peter O’Toole, Will Smith, Forest Whitaker…Leonardo DiCaprio)
Both of my alternates scored instead. Thankfully Ryan Gosling got in but Sacha Baron Cohen did not. And I had the right actor but wrong film (just like Oscar) for DiCaprio’s nomination.
Best Actress
Five for five (Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet)
Best Supporting Actor
Three out of five (Alan Arkin, Jackie Earle Haley, Eddie Murphy)
I had Departed’s Jack Nicholson and Queen’s Michael Sheen but Blood Diamond’s Djimon Hounsou, an alternate pick, and Departed’s Mark Whalberg, who I mentioned but didn’t believe in, made the cut.
Best Supporting Actress
Four out of five (Adriana Barraza, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Hudson, Rinko Kikuchi)
Alternate pick Abigail Breslin happily made it in instead of Prada’s Emily Blunt.
Best Original Screenplay
Four out of five (Babel, Little Miss Sunshine, Pan’s Labyrinth, The Queen)
Alternate pick Letters From Iwo Jima (stronger than I expected overall) was nominated, United 93 was not.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Four out of five (Children of Men, The Departed, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal)
Common sense prevailed and The Devil Wears Prada’s script is not nominated. I predicted the wrong token nomination for Borat, which turned up here instead of Best Actor.
Best Animated Film
Three for three (Cars, Happy Feet, Monster House)
Thankfully. Now let’s see the penguins take down Pixar!
Best Documentary (Feature Length)
Three for five (Deliver Us From Evil, An Inconvenient Truth, Iraq in Fragments)
I had Jesus Camp as an alternate. My Country, My Country is the fifth nominee.
Best Foreign Language Film
Four for five (Days of Glory, The Lives of Others, Pan’s Labyrinth, Water)
Denmark’s After the Wedding made it in but Spain’s Volver, ludicrously, did not.
Best Art Direction/Production Design
Three for five (Dreamgirls, Pan’s Labyrinth, Pirates of the Caribbean)
I thought Children of Men and Marie Antoinette would pop up here but instead nominations went to The Good Shepherd (the only nom for a very solid film) and The Prestige.
Best Cinematography
Three for five (Children of Men, The Illusionist, Pan’s Labyrinth)
Not a single Best Picture in the running in this category. I thought Babel and Dreamgirls would crack the list but instead: Cinematographers’ Guild nominee The Black Dahlia and relative surprise The Prestige.
Best Costume Design
Four out of five (Curse of the Golden Flower, The Devil Wears Prada, Dreamgirls, Marie Antoinette)
I had The Queen as an alternate, which made the list over my prediction Pan’s Labyrinth.
Best Editing
Three out of five (Babel, The Departed, United 93)
Surprisingly light on Best Picture nominees. I thought Dreamgirls and Little Miss Sunshine would make it in but nominations instead went to “thoughtful” action films Blood Diamond and Children of Men.
Best Makeup
Two out of three (Apocalypto, Pan’s Labyrinth)
Ok so maybe the makeup in Click is really good, because it landed a nomination over the showy Pirates of the Caribbean. I don’t really want to find out.
Best Score
Two out of five (Babel, The Good German)
I had the right composers but the wrong films for two of the nominations: Philip Glass was nominated for Notes on a Scandal not The Illusionist, and Alexandre Desplat for The Queen and not his superior work on The Painted Veil. Both were my alternates. I really can’t say what possessed me to predict The Da Vinci Code over actual nominee Pan’s Labyrinth (easily one of the year’s great scores).
Best Song
Three out of five (Cars, Dreamgirls, An Inconvenient Truth)
All three Dreamgirls songs made it in but only one was an alternate pick for me. It might be a bad omen that Happy Feet missed out here, but it’s a good thing that Bobby couldn’t get a single nomination.
Best Sound
Four out of five (Blood Diamond, Dreamgirls, Flags of Our Fathers, Pirates of the Caribbean)
I predicted Babel but Apocalypto made it in.
Best Sound Editing
Three out of five (Apocalypto, Flags of Our Fathers, Pirates of the Caribbean)
Blood Diamond and Letters From Iwo Jima are also nominated in the other hotly contested sound category. (Not having a clue what I was doing, I predicted Cars and The Departed.)
Best Visual Effects
Two out of three (Pirates of the Caribbean, Superman Returns)
I thought Poseidon would be too clunky and trashy to nominate. I was wrong. And Casino Royale, which I incorrectly predicted, was completely shut out today.
Overall: 70 out of 99, or 71%. Counting the alternates: 83 out of 99, 84%.
Four out of five (Babel, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen)
Dreamgirls obviously missed out and Letters From Iwo Jima, which I had as an alternate, got in.
Best Director
Four out of five (Clint Eastwood, Stephen Frears, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Martin Scorsese)
I thought Bill Condon might be vulnerable but I never would’ve predicted Dreamgirls missing Best Picture, which makes his absence here more understandable. My alternate pick Paul Greengrass (United 93) was the token nominee of a film not up for Best Picture.
Best Actor
Three and a half out of five (Peter O’Toole, Will Smith, Forest Whitaker…Leonardo DiCaprio)
Both of my alternates scored instead. Thankfully Ryan Gosling got in but Sacha Baron Cohen did not. And I had the right actor but wrong film (just like Oscar) for DiCaprio’s nomination.
Best Actress
Five for five (Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet)
Best Supporting Actor
Three out of five (Alan Arkin, Jackie Earle Haley, Eddie Murphy)
I had Departed’s Jack Nicholson and Queen’s Michael Sheen but Blood Diamond’s Djimon Hounsou, an alternate pick, and Departed’s Mark Whalberg, who I mentioned but didn’t believe in, made the cut.
Best Supporting Actress
Four out of five (Adriana Barraza, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Hudson, Rinko Kikuchi)
Alternate pick Abigail Breslin happily made it in instead of Prada’s Emily Blunt.
Best Original Screenplay
Four out of five (Babel, Little Miss Sunshine, Pan’s Labyrinth, The Queen)
Alternate pick Letters From Iwo Jima (stronger than I expected overall) was nominated, United 93 was not.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Four out of five (Children of Men, The Departed, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal)
Common sense prevailed and The Devil Wears Prada’s script is not nominated. I predicted the wrong token nomination for Borat, which turned up here instead of Best Actor.
Best Animated Film
Three for three (Cars, Happy Feet, Monster House)
Thankfully. Now let’s see the penguins take down Pixar!
Best Documentary (Feature Length)
Three for five (Deliver Us From Evil, An Inconvenient Truth, Iraq in Fragments)
I had Jesus Camp as an alternate. My Country, My Country is the fifth nominee.
Best Foreign Language Film
Four for five (Days of Glory, The Lives of Others, Pan’s Labyrinth, Water)
Denmark’s After the Wedding made it in but Spain’s Volver, ludicrously, did not.
Best Art Direction/Production Design
Three for five (Dreamgirls, Pan’s Labyrinth, Pirates of the Caribbean)
I thought Children of Men and Marie Antoinette would pop up here but instead nominations went to The Good Shepherd (the only nom for a very solid film) and The Prestige.
Best Cinematography
Three for five (Children of Men, The Illusionist, Pan’s Labyrinth)
Not a single Best Picture in the running in this category. I thought Babel and Dreamgirls would crack the list but instead: Cinematographers’ Guild nominee The Black Dahlia and relative surprise The Prestige.
Best Costume Design
Four out of five (Curse of the Golden Flower, The Devil Wears Prada, Dreamgirls, Marie Antoinette)
I had The Queen as an alternate, which made the list over my prediction Pan’s Labyrinth.
Best Editing
Three out of five (Babel, The Departed, United 93)
Surprisingly light on Best Picture nominees. I thought Dreamgirls and Little Miss Sunshine would make it in but nominations instead went to “thoughtful” action films Blood Diamond and Children of Men.
Best Makeup
Two out of three (Apocalypto, Pan’s Labyrinth)
Ok so maybe the makeup in Click is really good, because it landed a nomination over the showy Pirates of the Caribbean. I don’t really want to find out.
Best Score
Two out of five (Babel, The Good German)
I had the right composers but the wrong films for two of the nominations: Philip Glass was nominated for Notes on a Scandal not The Illusionist, and Alexandre Desplat for The Queen and not his superior work on The Painted Veil. Both were my alternates. I really can’t say what possessed me to predict The Da Vinci Code over actual nominee Pan’s Labyrinth (easily one of the year’s great scores).
Best Song
Three out of five (Cars, Dreamgirls, An Inconvenient Truth)
All three Dreamgirls songs made it in but only one was an alternate pick for me. It might be a bad omen that Happy Feet missed out here, but it’s a good thing that Bobby couldn’t get a single nomination.
Best Sound
Four out of five (Blood Diamond, Dreamgirls, Flags of Our Fathers, Pirates of the Caribbean)
I predicted Babel but Apocalypto made it in.
Best Sound Editing
Three out of five (Apocalypto, Flags of Our Fathers, Pirates of the Caribbean)
Blood Diamond and Letters From Iwo Jima are also nominated in the other hotly contested sound category. (Not having a clue what I was doing, I predicted Cars and The Departed.)
Best Visual Effects
Two out of three (Pirates of the Caribbean, Superman Returns)
I thought Poseidon would be too clunky and trashy to nominate. I was wrong. And Casino Royale, which I incorrectly predicted, was completely shut out today.
Overall: 70 out of 99, or 71%. Counting the alternates: 83 out of 99, 84%.
Just watch the SAGs instead...
Today's Oscar acting nominees match the Screen Actors Guild nominations EXACTLY with the lone exception of Leonardo DiCaprio's "supporting" nomination for The Departed, replaced at the Oscars with his co-star Mark Wahlberg. zzzz...
I'm torn...
The Good:
Abigail Breslin nominated for Best Supporting Actress
Ryan Gosling nominated for Best Actor
Letters From Iwo Jima (a deserving film) nominated for Best Picture and Director
The Devil Wears Prada NOT nominated for Screenplay (or anything besides Streep and costumes)
Six nominations for Pan's Labyrinth
Dreamgirls getting the most nominations overall
Expected nominations for The Departed, Martin Scorsese, Jennifer Hudson, Eddie Murphy, Penelope Cruz, Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren, Judi Dench, Forest Whitaker, Jackie Earl Haley, Happy Feet, The Lives of Others
The Bad:
Leonardo DiCaprio nominated for Blood Diamond instead of The Departed
Dreamgirls' exclusion from the top categories (Picture & Director)
Volver not nominated for anything besides Penelope Cruz (including foreign film)
Mark Wahlberg as The Departed's ONLY acting nominee
Michael Sheen failing to be recognized for The Queen
The Black Dahlia is an Oscar nominee (for cinematography)
Poseidon is an Oscar nominee (for visual effects)
Those are pretty bad, especially the first four.
I still believe this is The Departed's Best Picture to lose. But Babel is now the most nominated Best Picture (7 nominations vs Departed's 5...The Queen has 6, Sunshine and Iwo Jima have 4). Only Babel and The Departed are nominated in the "key" Best Editing category. The dynamic has really changed. And sadly I think the race is a lot less interesting without Dreamgirls.
Abigail Breslin nominated for Best Supporting Actress
Ryan Gosling nominated for Best Actor
Letters From Iwo Jima (a deserving film) nominated for Best Picture and Director
The Devil Wears Prada NOT nominated for Screenplay (or anything besides Streep and costumes)
Six nominations for Pan's Labyrinth
Dreamgirls getting the most nominations overall
Expected nominations for The Departed, Martin Scorsese, Jennifer Hudson, Eddie Murphy, Penelope Cruz, Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren, Judi Dench, Forest Whitaker, Jackie Earl Haley, Happy Feet, The Lives of Others
The Bad:
Leonardo DiCaprio nominated for Blood Diamond instead of The Departed
Dreamgirls' exclusion from the top categories (Picture & Director)
Volver not nominated for anything besides Penelope Cruz (including foreign film)
Mark Wahlberg as The Departed's ONLY acting nominee
Michael Sheen failing to be recognized for The Queen
The Black Dahlia is an Oscar nominee (for cinematography)
Poseidon is an Oscar nominee (for visual effects)
Those are pretty bad, especially the first four.
I still believe this is The Departed's Best Picture to lose. But Babel is now the most nominated Best Picture (7 nominations vs Departed's 5...The Queen has 6, Sunshine and Iwo Jima have 4). Only Babel and The Departed are nominated in the "key" Best Editing category. The dynamic has really changed. And sadly I think the race is a lot less interesting without Dreamgirls.
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Oscar nominee predictions 2006
Oscar nominations are due out Tuesday morning, so it's annual prediction time.
It's really difficult to predict how Clint Eastwood's one-two punch of Flags of Our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima will factor in to this year's race. Will the films cancel each other out, since neither one really took off on their own at the box office?
Other wildcards include the 9/11 films (can Oliver Stone really make a Sept. 11 movie that gets zero nominations?) and box office underperformers like Blood Diamond, Bobby, The Good German and The Painted Veil. They should be shut out of major categories but are they doomed to go unrecognized entirely?
For "historical" context: last year's predictions, and how I did.
Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Alternates: Letters From Iwo Jima, United 93
There's not much guessing involved here. The Producers Guild and Directors Guild both selected these five nominees. Anything else would be a big upset. (Incidentally Little Miss Sunshine won the top prize from the Producers Guild this weekend. Not a bad sign but not a major harbinger of things to come either: six out of the last ten winners went on to win Best Picture but the last two winners, Brokeback Mountain and The Aviator, did not.)
Best Director
Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Alternates: Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris (Little Miss Sunshine), Paul Greengrass (United 93)
The Sunshine team managed a nomination from the Directors Guild and that's impressive but I don't think Picture and Director will match 5/5 this year. Bill Condon also, unfortunately, feels vulnerable. Children of Men's Alfonso Cuaron is a hotly championed contender, but this is a year overflowing with possibilities.
Best Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
Is Borat too big a sensation to ignore? And Half Nelson too small a movie to make an impact? That's what I'm thinking right now. But I'm most anxious over what voters decided to do about DiCaprio's double duty.
Best Actress
Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)
I'm not even going to bother with alternates. Maybe in another year Annette Bening (Running with Scissors), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby) and even Beyonce (Dreamgirls) would've had a shot. But this year anyone other than these five would be a big surprise.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Jackie Earl Haley (Little Children)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Michael Sheen (The Queen)
Alternates: Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), Brad Pitt (Babel)
The most frustrating category to predict. Only Eddie Murphy was on both the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild lists. I'm going on a limb by predicting Sheen, who has been ignored so far. I'm not sold on Arkin but I'm not sure who else to turn to. Pitt's star power, and the relative popularity of his film, could serve him well but I still believe the performance is underwhelming. And Golden Globe nominee Mark Wahlberg (The Departed) is a popular contender, but his part is so small...not that that hurt William Hurt last year.
Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza (Babel)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
Alternates: Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Toni Collette (Little Miss Sunshine)
Everyone here seems like a lock except Blunt, who I'm predicting will upset the Sunshine contenders (though I'd much prefer a nom for Breslin). Shoulda-beens like Emma Thompson (Stranger Than Fiction), Vera Farmiga (The Departed) and Maggie Gyllenhaal (World Trade Center) have been ignored in awards leading up to this. And Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration) got some critical support but her movie is weak, and forgotten at this point.
Best Original Screenplay
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
United 93
Alternates: Letters From Iwo Jima, Volver
I want to work in Volver, Almodovar could develop into a perennial Oscar pick the way Woody Allen was for awhile, but I'm not sure what to drop. Stranger Than Fiction got a Writers Guild nom but I'm afraid it will have to make due with just that.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Children of Men
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Alternates: Dreamgirls, Thank You For Smoking
A tough, strange category. The Departed is clearly a lock but beyond that...Little Children isn't a very popular film and the other three scripts, frankly, aren't that great. But genre will probably hold back Dreamgirls. I'm skeptical of Smoking but it earned a Writers Guild nom. So did Borat, in this category, so I assume Oscar voters will have to consider it here. There's also The Last King of Scotland, co-scripted by a hot writer of the moment (Peter Morgan, who also wrote The Queen).
Best Animated Film
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House
Alternates: Flushed Away, Over the Hedge
DreamWorks muscle might be enough to push in Hedge. Fondness for Aardman could do the trick with Flushed.
Best Documentary (Feature Length)
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jonestown: The Life and Death of People's Temple
The War Tapes
Alternates: Jesus Camp, Shut Up & Sing
Beyond Inconvenient Truth, the likely winner, I'm just guessing really, but I'd like to see Shut Up & Sing actually make the cut.
Best Foreign Language Film
Days of Glory (Algeria)
The Lives of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)
Volver (Spain)
Water (Canada)
Alternates: Avenue Montaigne (France), Black Book (Netherlands)
This category had a "semi-final" round this year and only nine films made it in. Denmark's After the Wedding and Switzerland's Vitus (the only one I'd never heard of) are also in the running. There are only 30 people total voting on this category...that could be dangerous.
Best Art Direction/Production Design
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Alternates: Babel, Curse of the Golden Flower
I also buy into predictions for Flags of Our Fathers, Letters From Iwo Jima, The Good German, Apocalypto and The Queen.
Best Cinematography
Babel
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
Alternates: The Departed, The Good Shepherd
It'd be nice to see one of Eastwood's films represented here but this category had the strangest corresponding Guild nominations of the year. I don't believe the Oscar list will be so removed from the Best Picture contenders.
Best Costume Design
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth
Alternates: The Illusionist, The Queen
Can Prada buck the preference for period work by using clothes to drive the story? Who cares really? A nomination for Little Miss Sunshine would be a lot more fun. Other period contenders include Bobby, The Good German, Miss Potter, The Painted Veil, The Prestige and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest.
Best Editing
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
United 93
Alternates: Letters From Iwo Jima, The Queen
Brokeback Mountain's failure to land a nomination here last year turned out to be a warning sign of the foul play yet to come. So watch this one closely.
Best Makeup
Apocalypto
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Alternates: The Prestige, X-Men: The Last Stand
The only other films qualified are Click and The Santa Clause 3. I feel pretty confident in my three choices.
Best Score
Babel
The Da Vinci Code
The Good German
The Illusionist
The Painted Veil
Alternates: Notes on a Scandal, The Queen
Philip Glass is responsible for Notes and Illusionist and Alexandre Desplat is behind Painted and Queen. So either, or both, could easily be double nominees. I was also thinking of Apocalyto and Volver here.
Best Song
I Need to Wake Up (An Inconvenient Truth)
Listen (Dreamgirls)
Never Gonna Break My Faith (Bobby)
Our Town (Cars)
Song of the Heart (Happy Feet)
Alternates: Patience (Dreamgirls), Til the End of Time (Little Miss Sunshine)
Ugh, this category is always frustrating. It could wind up with less than five nominees, like last year. Voters could show an unexpected fondness for indie rock and go for the Sunshine song, especially since it's a Picture contender. Dreamgirls has one other original song: Love You I Do. Sheryl Crow has songs from both Cars (Real Gone) and the instant-disaster Home of the Brave (Try Not to Remember). I also feel like mentioning Ordinary Miracle from Charlotte's Web and O Kazakhstan from Borat as potential spoilers.
Best Sound
Babel
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Alternates: Casino Royale, The Departed
Best Sound Editing
Apocalypto
Cars
The Departed
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Alternates: Casino Royale, Superman Returns
Best Visual Effects
Casino Royale
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns
Alternates: Night at the Museum, Poseidon
The only other possibilities are Eragon and X-Men: The Last Stand, both frightening. I wouldn't be surprised if Pirates and Superman were the only nominees.
It's really difficult to predict how Clint Eastwood's one-two punch of Flags of Our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima will factor in to this year's race. Will the films cancel each other out, since neither one really took off on their own at the box office?
Other wildcards include the 9/11 films (can Oliver Stone really make a Sept. 11 movie that gets zero nominations?) and box office underperformers like Blood Diamond, Bobby, The Good German and The Painted Veil. They should be shut out of major categories but are they doomed to go unrecognized entirely?
For "historical" context: last year's predictions, and how I did.
Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Alternates: Letters From Iwo Jima, United 93
There's not much guessing involved here. The Producers Guild and Directors Guild both selected these five nominees. Anything else would be a big upset. (Incidentally Little Miss Sunshine won the top prize from the Producers Guild this weekend. Not a bad sign but not a major harbinger of things to come either: six out of the last ten winners went on to win Best Picture but the last two winners, Brokeback Mountain and The Aviator, did not.)
Best Director
Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Alternates: Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris (Little Miss Sunshine), Paul Greengrass (United 93)
The Sunshine team managed a nomination from the Directors Guild and that's impressive but I don't think Picture and Director will match 5/5 this year. Bill Condon also, unfortunately, feels vulnerable. Children of Men's Alfonso Cuaron is a hotly championed contender, but this is a year overflowing with possibilities.
Best Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
Is Borat too big a sensation to ignore? And Half Nelson too small a movie to make an impact? That's what I'm thinking right now. But I'm most anxious over what voters decided to do about DiCaprio's double duty.
Best Actress
Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)
I'm not even going to bother with alternates. Maybe in another year Annette Bening (Running with Scissors), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby) and even Beyonce (Dreamgirls) would've had a shot. But this year anyone other than these five would be a big surprise.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Jackie Earl Haley (Little Children)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Michael Sheen (The Queen)
Alternates: Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), Brad Pitt (Babel)
The most frustrating category to predict. Only Eddie Murphy was on both the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild lists. I'm going on a limb by predicting Sheen, who has been ignored so far. I'm not sold on Arkin but I'm not sure who else to turn to. Pitt's star power, and the relative popularity of his film, could serve him well but I still believe the performance is underwhelming. And Golden Globe nominee Mark Wahlberg (The Departed) is a popular contender, but his part is so small...not that that hurt William Hurt last year.
Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza (Babel)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
Alternates: Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Toni Collette (Little Miss Sunshine)
Everyone here seems like a lock except Blunt, who I'm predicting will upset the Sunshine contenders (though I'd much prefer a nom for Breslin). Shoulda-beens like Emma Thompson (Stranger Than Fiction), Vera Farmiga (The Departed) and Maggie Gyllenhaal (World Trade Center) have been ignored in awards leading up to this. And Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration) got some critical support but her movie is weak, and forgotten at this point.
Best Original Screenplay
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
United 93
Alternates: Letters From Iwo Jima, Volver
I want to work in Volver, Almodovar could develop into a perennial Oscar pick the way Woody Allen was for awhile, but I'm not sure what to drop. Stranger Than Fiction got a Writers Guild nom but I'm afraid it will have to make due with just that.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Children of Men
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Alternates: Dreamgirls, Thank You For Smoking
A tough, strange category. The Departed is clearly a lock but beyond that...Little Children isn't a very popular film and the other three scripts, frankly, aren't that great. But genre will probably hold back Dreamgirls. I'm skeptical of Smoking but it earned a Writers Guild nom. So did Borat, in this category, so I assume Oscar voters will have to consider it here. There's also The Last King of Scotland, co-scripted by a hot writer of the moment (Peter Morgan, who also wrote The Queen).
Best Animated Film
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House
Alternates: Flushed Away, Over the Hedge
DreamWorks muscle might be enough to push in Hedge. Fondness for Aardman could do the trick with Flushed.
Best Documentary (Feature Length)
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jonestown: The Life and Death of People's Temple
The War Tapes
Alternates: Jesus Camp, Shut Up & Sing
Beyond Inconvenient Truth, the likely winner, I'm just guessing really, but I'd like to see Shut Up & Sing actually make the cut.
Best Foreign Language Film
Days of Glory (Algeria)
The Lives of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)
Volver (Spain)
Water (Canada)
Alternates: Avenue Montaigne (France), Black Book (Netherlands)
This category had a "semi-final" round this year and only nine films made it in. Denmark's After the Wedding and Switzerland's Vitus (the only one I'd never heard of) are also in the running. There are only 30 people total voting on this category...that could be dangerous.
Best Art Direction/Production Design
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Alternates: Babel, Curse of the Golden Flower
I also buy into predictions for Flags of Our Fathers, Letters From Iwo Jima, The Good German, Apocalypto and The Queen.
Best Cinematography
Babel
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
Alternates: The Departed, The Good Shepherd
It'd be nice to see one of Eastwood's films represented here but this category had the strangest corresponding Guild nominations of the year. I don't believe the Oscar list will be so removed from the Best Picture contenders.
Best Costume Design
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth
Alternates: The Illusionist, The Queen
Can Prada buck the preference for period work by using clothes to drive the story? Who cares really? A nomination for Little Miss Sunshine would be a lot more fun. Other period contenders include Bobby, The Good German, Miss Potter, The Painted Veil, The Prestige and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest.
Best Editing
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
United 93
Alternates: Letters From Iwo Jima, The Queen
Brokeback Mountain's failure to land a nomination here last year turned out to be a warning sign of the foul play yet to come. So watch this one closely.
Best Makeup
Apocalypto
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Alternates: The Prestige, X-Men: The Last Stand
The only other films qualified are Click and The Santa Clause 3. I feel pretty confident in my three choices.
Best Score
Babel
The Da Vinci Code
The Good German
The Illusionist
The Painted Veil
Alternates: Notes on a Scandal, The Queen
Philip Glass is responsible for Notes and Illusionist and Alexandre Desplat is behind Painted and Queen. So either, or both, could easily be double nominees. I was also thinking of Apocalyto and Volver here.
Best Song
I Need to Wake Up (An Inconvenient Truth)
Listen (Dreamgirls)
Never Gonna Break My Faith (Bobby)
Our Town (Cars)
Song of the Heart (Happy Feet)
Alternates: Patience (Dreamgirls), Til the End of Time (Little Miss Sunshine)
Ugh, this category is always frustrating. It could wind up with less than five nominees, like last year. Voters could show an unexpected fondness for indie rock and go for the Sunshine song, especially since it's a Picture contender. Dreamgirls has one other original song: Love You I Do. Sheryl Crow has songs from both Cars (Real Gone) and the instant-disaster Home of the Brave (Try Not to Remember). I also feel like mentioning Ordinary Miracle from Charlotte's Web and O Kazakhstan from Borat as potential spoilers.
Best Sound
Babel
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Alternates: Casino Royale, The Departed
Best Sound Editing
Apocalypto
Cars
The Departed
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Alternates: Casino Royale, Superman Returns
Best Visual Effects
Casino Royale
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns
Alternates: Night at the Museum, Poseidon
The only other possibilities are Eragon and X-Men: The Last Stand, both frightening. I wouldn't be surprised if Pirates and Superman were the only nominees.
Friday, January 19, 2007
Two of last year's best reviewed
Reviews are up for:
Pan's Labyrinth
and
Volver
It's hard to find the words to do justice to the masterful Pan's Labyrinth, especially in a brief review. If I had a second pass, after some edits, I might have tried to stress the importance of the military storyline (the "real" sections of the film). But it's best to simply see and experience the film for yourself.
I'm also responsible for the Viva Pedro survey/photo gallery attached to the Volver review.
And the latest lame 2007 release: The Hitcher. It's January, whatever.
Pan's Labyrinth
and
Volver
It's hard to find the words to do justice to the masterful Pan's Labyrinth, especially in a brief review. If I had a second pass, after some edits, I might have tried to stress the importance of the military storyline (the "real" sections of the film). But it's best to simply see and experience the film for yourself.
I'm also responsible for the Viva Pedro survey/photo gallery attached to the Volver review.
And the latest lame 2007 release: The Hitcher. It's January, whatever.
Sunday, January 14, 2007
Golden Globes preview
We're still in the thick of award season and all of the major Hollywood guilds have announced their nominations: Actors, Directors, Producers, Writers, Cinematographers, Editors. The big news there is that both the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild selected the same five nominees: Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen. It seems like it will take an act of the movie gods to prevent these five movies from being Oscar's Best Picture nominees.
But there's still a lot that feels up in the air about this year's awards, and the Golden Globes may give us the some clues in a few of the more competitive categories.
Nothing that happens at the Golden Globe awards will actually alter who will or will not be nominated for an Oscar. The votes have been cast, the ballots were due in yesterday. That said, there is momentum to be gained, or lost, for potential winners.
A few Globe categories are hardly in play. Helen Mirren, Sacha Baron Cohen and Meryl Streep are sure bets in the lead film categories. A loss for any would be a major upset. It should also be a given that all three will deliver entertaining speeches.
Also likely but not necessarily locked: Dreamgirls duo Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy in the supporting categories. Hudson will face roughly the same competition at SAG and probably on Oscar night. Tomorrow could/should be the first of three big wins for her. Murphy is the only Globe supporting actor nominee also nominated by SAG, so a win or a loss for him probably doesn't mean as much.
But the real races to watch...
Lead actor in a drama:
This could be where Forest Whitaker builds on the dominance he's established from the critics' awards and steamrolls his way to an Oscar.
OR
This could mark a shift toward support for Peter O'Toole or Will Smith. If either were to win here and go on to win at SAG they'd be the man to beat on Oscar night.
OR
Double nominee Leonardo DiCaprio could beat himself. Again, what happens at the Globes doesn't matter, his Oscar nomination fate has already been sealed: he'll be up for The Departed, Blood Diamond, neither, or theoretically both (if enough Oscar voters placed him in lead for Blood Diamond and supporting for The Departed). A Globe victory for Leo would be huge, but a lead Oscar nom for The Departed is the more important nail-biter.
Foreign language film:
Two of the nominees: Apocalypto and Letters from Iwo Jima are not eligible for Oscar's foreign film category because they're American productions. The other three: Germany's The Lives of Others, Spain's Volver and Mexico's Pan's Labyrinth are considered the Oscar front runners.
Eastwood's Iwo Jima has been faring miserably so far in award season, yet it still has to be considered the favorite here. A Globe would be nice but probably won't help increase its box office or awards traction. However, a win for one of the films from another country would be big and help give it prime positioning for Oscar.
Animated film:
This is the first year the Globes have had this category and it will be interesting to see how they vote. At times there's a little too much emphasis put on the "foreign" part of the Hollywood Foreign Press organization that votes on the Globes, but adhering to that cliche Happy Feet should have the edge. Cars was still a bigger hit and comes from well respected Pixar. Monster House is a scrappy underdog.
At any rate it's generally expected these will be the three Oscar nominees for animated film as well. So a win here is probably important.
And the biggies:
Comedy/musical and drama film:
Neither of these feel as up in the air as the other categories but they do seem like honest two way races.
Dreamgirls should have the edge in comedy/musical but Little Miss Sunshine is seen as a possible upset Oscar victor. Beating Dreamgirls for a Globe would make that momentum snowball.
The Departed seems like the likely drama champ (and Scorsese a likely winner in directing, though the Globes don't "owe" him anything the way Oscar does) but the Globes showered Babel with nominations and that "foreign" part of Hollywood Foreign Press is enough to convince pundits it has a shot at a big win. Sometimes, perception is everything. I don't expect Babel to be a real threat for an Oscar win but a Globe victory does seem possible.
On the TV side I'll be cheering for Ugly Betty in both its categories and expect America Ferrera to win. I'm also hoping for an Alec Baldwin win (anything to bring more attention to the undeservedly struggling 30 Rock). And any win for Bleak House would be great (but unlikely).
Otherwise TV is a bit of a snooze. I haven't seen most of the telefilms, including Elizabeth I and Tsunami, or Showtime's Dexter. Wins for Heroes would be nice but I'd rather see that show prove itself a little more.
I'd also love to see Edie Falco win, both to recognize an undervalued season of The Sopranos and to acknowledge that her competition is incredibly lame.
But there's still a lot that feels up in the air about this year's awards, and the Golden Globes may give us the some clues in a few of the more competitive categories.
Nothing that happens at the Golden Globe awards will actually alter who will or will not be nominated for an Oscar. The votes have been cast, the ballots were due in yesterday. That said, there is momentum to be gained, or lost, for potential winners.
A few Globe categories are hardly in play. Helen Mirren, Sacha Baron Cohen and Meryl Streep are sure bets in the lead film categories. A loss for any would be a major upset. It should also be a given that all three will deliver entertaining speeches.
Also likely but not necessarily locked: Dreamgirls duo Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy in the supporting categories. Hudson will face roughly the same competition at SAG and probably on Oscar night. Tomorrow could/should be the first of three big wins for her. Murphy is the only Globe supporting actor nominee also nominated by SAG, so a win or a loss for him probably doesn't mean as much.
But the real races to watch...
Lead actor in a drama:
This could be where Forest Whitaker builds on the dominance he's established from the critics' awards and steamrolls his way to an Oscar.
OR
This could mark a shift toward support for Peter O'Toole or Will Smith. If either were to win here and go on to win at SAG they'd be the man to beat on Oscar night.
OR
Double nominee Leonardo DiCaprio could beat himself. Again, what happens at the Globes doesn't matter, his Oscar nomination fate has already been sealed: he'll be up for The Departed, Blood Diamond, neither, or theoretically both (if enough Oscar voters placed him in lead for Blood Diamond and supporting for The Departed). A Globe victory for Leo would be huge, but a lead Oscar nom for The Departed is the more important nail-biter.
Foreign language film:
Two of the nominees: Apocalypto and Letters from Iwo Jima are not eligible for Oscar's foreign film category because they're American productions. The other three: Germany's The Lives of Others, Spain's Volver and Mexico's Pan's Labyrinth are considered the Oscar front runners.
Eastwood's Iwo Jima has been faring miserably so far in award season, yet it still has to be considered the favorite here. A Globe would be nice but probably won't help increase its box office or awards traction. However, a win for one of the films from another country would be big and help give it prime positioning for Oscar.
Animated film:
This is the first year the Globes have had this category and it will be interesting to see how they vote. At times there's a little too much emphasis put on the "foreign" part of the Hollywood Foreign Press organization that votes on the Globes, but adhering to that cliche Happy Feet should have the edge. Cars was still a bigger hit and comes from well respected Pixar. Monster House is a scrappy underdog.
At any rate it's generally expected these will be the three Oscar nominees for animated film as well. So a win here is probably important.
And the biggies:
Comedy/musical and drama film:
Neither of these feel as up in the air as the other categories but they do seem like honest two way races.
Dreamgirls should have the edge in comedy/musical but Little Miss Sunshine is seen as a possible upset Oscar victor. Beating Dreamgirls for a Globe would make that momentum snowball.
The Departed seems like the likely drama champ (and Scorsese a likely winner in directing, though the Globes don't "owe" him anything the way Oscar does) but the Globes showered Babel with nominations and that "foreign" part of Hollywood Foreign Press is enough to convince pundits it has a shot at a big win. Sometimes, perception is everything. I don't expect Babel to be a real threat for an Oscar win but a Globe victory does seem possible.
On the TV side I'll be cheering for Ugly Betty in both its categories and expect America Ferrera to win. I'm also hoping for an Alec Baldwin win (anything to bring more attention to the undeservedly struggling 30 Rock). And any win for Bleak House would be great (but unlikely).
Otherwise TV is a bit of a snooze. I haven't seen most of the telefilms, including Elizabeth I and Tsunami, or Showtime's Dexter. Wins for Heroes would be nice but I'd rather see that show prove itself a little more.
I'd also love to see Edie Falco win, both to recognize an undervalued season of The Sopranos and to acknowledge that her competition is incredibly lame.
Movies I probably wouldn't have seen...
if I didn't have my current job:
Arthur and the Invisibles
Stomp the Yard
And also newly posted this week: Notes on a Scandal
Arthur and the Invisibles
Stomp the Yard
And also newly posted this week: Notes on a Scandal
Friday, January 05, 2007
Reviews: Two good, one not so much
It's been a long wait for Little Children to expand beyond a handful of markets but it finally seems to be happening.
Also reviewed: the nutty Perfume and the unforgivably, if not unexpectedly, lame Happily N'Ever After.
And just a note, Knights of Prosperity "encores" tonight at 9 on ABC and is also available to view on the network's website. Catch it fast, before they cancel it. Which probably won't be too long from now.
Top Ten lists coming soon...
Also reviewed: the nutty Perfume and the unforgivably, if not unexpectedly, lame Happily N'Ever After.
And just a note, Knights of Prosperity "encores" tonight at 9 on ABC and is also available to view on the network's website. Catch it fast, before they cancel it. Which probably won't be too long from now.
Top Ten lists coming soon...
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Good TV: Knights of Prosperity
This season's standout new half-hour comedy, The Knights of Prosperity, finally arrives tonight at 9 on ABC. It's a smart, single camera show about a group of blue collar guys (and one attractive woman) who decide to improve their status by robbing a celebrity. In the pilot they set their sites on Mick Jagger (who plays himself in very funny segments throughout tonight's episode).
If the series had premiered last year as originally planned it would've been one of my top picks for Fall TV, but the network decided to hold off until midseason. At the time I thought that might be a good move, but it's possible Knights could've benefited from the Dancing with the Stars lead in that Ted Danson's Help Me Help You squandered. Now Knights goes out with According to Jim as a lead-in...the differences couldn't be more striking.
Knights stars vaguely familiar TV faces like Donal Logue, Sofia Vergara and Lenny Venito but their credits are not as important as the chemistry they develop as an ensemble. Each of the six characters is well defined, unique and smartly cast. One of the show's most immediately appealing traits is the lack of cookie-cutter casting.
The writing and direction for the pilot are equally sharp. It's impossible to say if the show will sustain its heist-driven concept, but the writing and cast chemistry should make Knights a welcome addition to the quality TV comedy landscape.
If you miss tonight's premiere you can still catch it on ABC.com tomorrow.
Knights is paired with another new comedy, In Case of Emergency. I haven't seen it, but I hear it's not so good.
If the series had premiered last year as originally planned it would've been one of my top picks for Fall TV, but the network decided to hold off until midseason. At the time I thought that might be a good move, but it's possible Knights could've benefited from the Dancing with the Stars lead in that Ted Danson's Help Me Help You squandered. Now Knights goes out with According to Jim as a lead-in...the differences couldn't be more striking.
Knights stars vaguely familiar TV faces like Donal Logue, Sofia Vergara and Lenny Venito but their credits are not as important as the chemistry they develop as an ensemble. Each of the six characters is well defined, unique and smartly cast. One of the show's most immediately appealing traits is the lack of cookie-cutter casting.
The writing and direction for the pilot are equally sharp. It's impossible to say if the show will sustain its heist-driven concept, but the writing and cast chemistry should make Knights a welcome addition to the quality TV comedy landscape.
If you miss tonight's premiere you can still catch it on ABC.com tomorrow.
Knights is paired with another new comedy, In Case of Emergency. I haven't seen it, but I hear it's not so good.
Tuesday, January 02, 2007
FX strikes out
I'm not finished looking back at 2006 yet but I already want to declare the new FX series Dirt, which premieres tonight, the worst show of 2007. This is the kind of disaster only a network normally associated with quality could produce.
It's not worth discussing the details of the show other than to say it has some of the worst writing, acting and filmmaking you can currently find in scripted television. What's notable is where you find it. If Dirt was airing on Lifetime it wouldn't be much cause for concern. But coming from FX—home to The Shield, Rescue Me, Nip/Tuck, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia and scores of noble misfires—this is pretty shocking. It goes beyond HBO's recent atrocity, Lucky Louie, which at least had a decent concept despite its horrendous execution.
After just a few minutes of Dirt's pilot episode it's obvious that the show never should've made it to air in its current form. It demands reshoots, rewriting, recasting. Courteney Cox Arquette, who is both executive producer and series lead, gives a performance so wooden and inept it's just embarrassing. But there's really no one to blame except the FX executives who ushered this on the air.
They could've said no. Luckily viewers can correct that mistake.
It's not worth discussing the details of the show other than to say it has some of the worst writing, acting and filmmaking you can currently find in scripted television. What's notable is where you find it. If Dirt was airing on Lifetime it wouldn't be much cause for concern. But coming from FX—home to The Shield, Rescue Me, Nip/Tuck, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia and scores of noble misfires—this is pretty shocking. It goes beyond HBO's recent atrocity, Lucky Louie, which at least had a decent concept despite its horrendous execution.
After just a few minutes of Dirt's pilot episode it's obvious that the show never should've made it to air in its current form. It demands reshoots, rewriting, recasting. Courteney Cox Arquette, who is both executive producer and series lead, gives a performance so wooden and inept it's just embarrassing. But there's really no one to blame except the FX executives who ushered this on the air.
They could've said no. Luckily viewers can correct that mistake.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)