Golden Globes preview

We're still in the thick of award season and all of the major Hollywood guilds have announced their nominations: Actors, Directors, Producers, Writers, Cinematographers, Editors. The big news there is that both the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild selected the same five nominees: Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen. It seems like it will take an act of the movie gods to prevent these five movies from being Oscar's Best Picture nominees.

But there's still a lot that feels up in the air about this year's awards, and the Golden Globes may give us the some clues in a few of the more competitive categories.

Nothing that happens at the Golden Globe awards will actually alter who will or will not be nominated for an Oscar. The votes have been cast, the ballots were due in yesterday. That said, there is momentum to be gained, or lost, for potential winners.

A few Globe categories are hardly in play. Helen Mirren, Sacha Baron Cohen and Meryl Streep are sure bets in the lead film categories. A loss for any would be a major upset. It should also be a given that all three will deliver entertaining speeches.

Also likely but not necessarily locked: Dreamgirls duo Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy in the supporting categories. Hudson will face roughly the same competition at SAG and probably on Oscar night. Tomorrow could/should be the first of three big wins for her. Murphy is the only Globe supporting actor nominee also nominated by SAG, so a win or a loss for him probably doesn't mean as much.

But the real races to watch...

Lead actor in a drama:
This could be where Forest Whitaker builds on the dominance he's established from the critics' awards and steamrolls his way to an Oscar.
OR
This could mark a shift toward support for Peter O'Toole or Will Smith. If either were to win here and go on to win at SAG they'd be the man to beat on Oscar night.
OR
Double nominee Leonardo DiCaprio could beat himself. Again, what happens at the Globes doesn't matter, his Oscar nomination fate has already been sealed: he'll be up for The Departed, Blood Diamond, neither, or theoretically both (if enough Oscar voters placed him in lead for Blood Diamond and supporting for The Departed). A Globe victory for Leo would be huge, but a lead Oscar nom for The Departed is the more important nail-biter.

Foreign language film:
Two of the nominees: Apocalypto and Letters from Iwo Jima are not eligible for Oscar's foreign film category because they're American productions. The other three: Germany's The Lives of Others, Spain's Volver and Mexico's Pan's Labyrinth are considered the Oscar front runners.

Eastwood's Iwo Jima has been faring miserably so far in award season, yet it still has to be considered the favorite here. A Globe would be nice but probably won't help increase its box office or awards traction. However, a win for one of the films from another country would be big and help give it prime positioning for Oscar.

Animated film:
This is the first year the Globes have had this category and it will be interesting to see how they vote. At times there's a little too much emphasis put on the "foreign" part of the Hollywood Foreign Press organization that votes on the Globes, but adhering to that cliche Happy Feet should have the edge. Cars was still a bigger hit and comes from well respected Pixar. Monster House is a scrappy underdog.

At any rate it's generally expected these will be the three Oscar nominees for animated film as well. So a win here is probably important.

And the biggies:
Comedy/musical and drama film:
Neither of these feel as up in the air as the other categories but they do seem like honest two way races.

Dreamgirls should have the edge in comedy/musical but Little Miss Sunshine is seen as a possible upset Oscar victor. Beating Dreamgirls for a Globe would make that momentum snowball.

The Departed seems like the likely drama champ (and Scorsese a likely winner in directing, though the Globes don't "owe" him anything the way Oscar does) but the Globes showered Babel with nominations and that "foreign" part of Hollywood Foreign Press is enough to convince pundits it has a shot at a big win. Sometimes, perception is everything. I don't expect Babel to be a real threat for an Oscar win but a Globe victory does seem possible.


On the TV side I'll be cheering for Ugly Betty in both its categories and expect America Ferrera to win. I'm also hoping for an Alec Baldwin win (anything to bring more attention to the undeservedly struggling 30 Rock). And any win for Bleak House would be great (but unlikely).

Otherwise TV is a bit of a snooze. I haven't seen most of the telefilms, including Elizabeth I and Tsunami, or Showtime's Dexter. Wins for Heroes would be nice but I'd rather see that show prove itself a little more.

I'd also love to see Edie Falco win, both to recognize an undervalued season of The Sopranos and to acknowledge that her competition is incredibly lame.