I feel a little tapped out on Oscar writing after this piece, which includes predictions on who/what will win and thoughts on who/what I think should win in the categories of Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Foreign Language Film. I tried to be fair to a variety of viewpoints in what "should" have been nominated for Best Picture, otherwise the commentary represents how I feel.
But anyway here's a quick rundown of all the categories (except the short films):
Best Picture
Babel; The Departed; Letters From Iwo Jima; Little Miss Sunshine; The Queen
It really is a wide open race this year. But Sunshine seems too small, too minor to be widely considered a "Best Picture." Letters From Iwo Jima simply hasn't made enough money. Babel hasn't made much more than Iwo Jima. The Queen is a darkhorse but a victory would still seem like an upset. The Departed is the only choice that really makes sense. But without a frontrunner it's logical to believe that the votes will be spread out among all five contenders and the winner could have less total votes than any other Best Picture in years.
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio; Ryan Gosling; Peter O'Toole; Will Smith; Forest Whitaker
I think respect for Whitaker's performance among the people who vote on these things has only increased with each award he's won. He's never exactly felt like the sure thing he's turned out to be every step of the way, and that's prevented any feeling that he peaked too soon.
Best Actress
Penélope Cruz; Judi Dench; Helen Mirren; Meryl Streep; Kate Winslet
Mirren has never won an Oscar and she's only been nominated twice before. So even if it feels like she's always winning awards this has been a long time coming. And it's well deserved.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin; Jackie Earle Haley; Djimon Hounsou; Eddie Murphy; Mark Wahlberg
A real toss-up, even though it shouldn't be. Murphy is the true standout. Is it really possible voters won't take him seriously to such a degree they'd consider voting for Mark Wahlberg?? Arkin seems the likely victor in case of a Murphy loss. Haley and Hounsou, the two actors besides Murphy to actually have roles of substance in their films, seem to be out of the running.
Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza; Cate Blanchett; Abigail Breslin; Jennifer Hudson; Rinko Kikuchi
Still Hudson's to lose. But if enough voters don't like the thought of a reality show contestant winning an Oscar (for a role where she sings more than she acts, the nerve!!) maybe Barraza will pull an upset. Thankfully she'll probably lose a lot of votes to her co-star. The real question: will we ever see any of the nominees not named Cate Blanchett in an award worthy role again?
Best Director
Clint Eastwood; Stephen Frears; Paul Greengrass; Alejandro González Iñárritu; Martin Scorsese
Scorsese. Yes, it will finally happen. Winning is about timing and luck more than talent, but it's nice to know he's also the most worthy of this group.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat; Children of Men; The Departed; Little Children; Notes On a Scandal
It's not even a fair fight for The Departed here.
Best Original Screenplay
Babel; Letters From Iwo Jima; Little Miss Sunshine; Pan's Labyrinth; The Queen
Little Miss Sunshine. This should be more competitive than it probably will be.
Best Animated Film
Cars; Happy Feet; Monster House
Do I go with my head or my heart? Since Oscar voters aren't known for valuing quality above all else I'll say Cars, the least worthy of the nominees, with its Pixar cred. But I hope I'm wrong.
Best Documentary
Deliver Us From Evil; An Inconvenient Truth; Iraq in Fragments; Jesus Camp; My Country, My Country
An Inconvenient Truth losing would be one of the biggest upsets possible.
Best Foreign Language Film
After the Wedding (Denmark); Days of Glory (Algeria); The Lives of Others (Germany); Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico); Water (Canada)
As great as The Lives of Others is, I really hope Pan's Labyrinth isn't snubbed here.
Best Original Song
"I Need to Wake Up" (An Inconvenient Truth); "Listen" (Dreamgirls); "Love You I Do" (Dreamgirls); "Our Town" (Cars); "Patience" (Dreamgirls)
The trio of Dreamgirls performances should be fun to watch, but even though Listen is critical to the movie's creative success there is stiff competition from I Need to Wake Up, and that one isn't competing with two other songs from the same movie.
Best Art Direction
Dreamgirls; The Good Shepherd; Pan's Labyrinth; Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest; The Prestige
The imagination of Pan's Labyrinth should pay off.
Best Cinematography
The Black Dahlia; Children of Men; The Illusionist; Pan's Labyrinth; The Prestige
Boy, is it still hard to swallow The Black Dahlia as an Oscar nominee, no matter what illustrious credits the cinematographer has in his distant past. Luckily Children of Men should have no trouble taking this home.
Best Costume Design
Curse of the Golden Flower; The Devil Wears Prada; Dreamgirls; Marie Antoinette; The Queen
Marie Antoinette is lavish and Prada's contemporary clothes help drive the "plot" but Dreamgirls has the style and the substance.
Best Editing
Babel; Blood Diamond; Children of Men; The Departed; United 93
Babel is this year's Crash, which won the category last year. And United 93 is pretty showy in editing as well. But The Departed should win, especially if it's on its way to Best Picture.
Best Original Score
Babel; The Good German; Notes On a Scandal; Pan's Labyrinth; The Queen
Having not seen The Good German yet (or heard its score) I'm not quite sure what I'm missing. Babel and The Queen would seem to have a leg up as Best Picture nominees but I'll stand by the haunting music of Pan's Labyrinth.
Best Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest; Poseidon; Superman Returns
Pirates of the Caribbean. The year's biggest movie wins an Oscar.
Best Makeup
Apocalypto; Click; Pan's Labyrinth
Pan's Labyrinth. The year's best movie shouldn't have any trouble winning this Oscar.
Best Sound
Apocalypto; Blood Diamond; Dreamgirls; Flags of Our Fathers; Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Dreamgirls
Best Sound Editing
Apocalypto; Blood Diamond; Flags of Our Fathers; Letters From Iwo Jima; Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Letters From Iwo Jima
If you're keeping track, that's four for The Departed, Dreamgirls and Pan's Labyrinth. Two for An Inconvenient Truth. And no more than one for anything else.
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