Disaster at the box office

All summer long box office reports have focused primarily on a "slump" which some people believe is serious, others believe is no big deal (year-to-date grosses are down over last year but they're up over two years ago; part of the problem is last year had three movies that hit the all time top ten: Passion of the Christ, Spider-Man 2 and Shrek 2; this year has only had Star Wars). At any rate it gets people thinking about issues like the importance of DVD and the quality of major studio releases.

All of this is a preamble to saying the discussion is about to come back in full force thanks to one massive underperformer. The Island (which I have not yet seen) opened to $4.4 million on Friday meaning it will do about $12-13 million for the weekend.

Anyone who follows box office knows that's an awfully low number, especially for a major studio (DreamWorks) PG-13-rated sci-fi action tentpole from a director (Michael Bay) with a track record of major hits. A movie like that should make $12 million in its first day, not its first three. People who write about this stuff are going to have a field day (bring on the disastrous headlines! "Bay Bombs!" "Island Sinks!").

This summer has seen a significant number of underperformers including Cinderella Man, Kingdom of Heaven, House of Wax and Dark Water (other, smaller, outright flops include The Honeymooners, Land of the Dead and The Perfect Man). To put The Island's misfortune into perspective with those: Cinderella Man made $18.3 million in its first weekend, Kingdom of Heaven opened with $19.6 million, House of Wax opened to $12 million and Dark Water opened to $9.9 million.

That puts The Island in House of Wax territory. But Wax was a relatively cheap investment at $40 million and was aimed specifically at the teen market. DreamWorks spent well over $100 million on The Island (although they shared some expenses with Warner Bros.) and it was their major live action event this summer.

Current domestic gross for House of Wax: $32 million (and it's not going to get much higher than that). If The Island limps to a final gross in that area it will inevitably enter the pantheon of all-time disasters alongside distinguished titles like Heaven's Gate, Howard the Duck, Ishtar, Cutthroat Island and Gigli.

Up to this point DreamWorks has had an ok summer. They opened Madagascar in May to decent numbers (more Shark Tale than Shrek but not embarrassing) and they have a hand in War of the Worlds but not as much as Paramount does. Their only other release this summer is the modest airplane thriller Red Eye starring Rachel McAdams and Cillian Murphy. But that movie now has a real chance of making more money than their major release. DreamWorks has been notoriously cautious about expensive projects like The Island and the studio is likely to remember that as they lick their wounds in the months to come.

I don't know who will take most of the blame here but I'd guess much of it will fall on the film's stars, Ewan McGregor and Scarlett Johansson. They're both recognized as talented performers but have no meaningful box office track record (other than McGregor's involvement in the new Star Wars trilogy). They will survive this but now whenever either one is under consideration for a major project the phrase "good actor but not a star" is sure to come up.

Bay will survive too, and he'll have easier access to expensive projects than either of the actors will, due mostly to his aforementioned track record (he just won't have access to them at DreamWorks). But this is still a major blow, especially for a director who claims he doesn't care that his films always receive terrible reviews as long as they do well at the box office.