Good show

So, Martin Scorsese and Helen Mirren finally win and it's now officially easier to win an Oscar if you were on American Idol than it is if you were on Saturday Night Live.

I don't have a whole lot to say, I sort of caught the show in bits and pieces between working on a couple of show photo galleries for work. I did catch Ellen's opening monologue and the presentations for most of the major awards. Any time an interpretive dance number started I immediately went back to work (is the show's producer Laura Ziskin responsible for that dumb decision?).

No major complaints on the winners. I was 15 out of 21 with my predictions (missing supporting actor, animated film, foreign language film, cinematography, costume design and original score) and none of the predicted winners really bothered me, nor do any of my non-predicted winners.

Pan's Labyrinth's loss to The Lives of Others for foreign film is ok considering Pan's won three awards overall and this gives some attention to the worthy German film. And although I wish I had stuck with my gut and predicted Happy Feet for its eventual animated film win I'm much happier predicting it wouldn't win only to see it win rather than vice versa.

I liked Jennifer Hudson's emotional speech the best but Helen Mirren and Martin Scorsese (and his longtime editor Thelma Schoonmaker) also chose their words wisely.

Al Gore and Melissa Etheridge were in a league of their own, reminding viewers of something considerably more meaningful than a silly awards show. To paraphrase both: they weren't making political statements, they were making moral statements.

Ellen seemed to do a nice job, the original song performances didn't sound too dull and there were classy presentations for several categories (the models for costume design; the screenplay excerpts; etc.).

And, in a nice change of pace from last year, this time the best picture actually won. I can't ask for much more than that.

Oscar predictions 2007

I feel a little tapped out on Oscar writing after this piece, which includes predictions on who/what will win and thoughts on who/what I think should win in the categories of Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Foreign Language Film. I tried to be fair to a variety of viewpoints in what "should" have been nominated for Best Picture, otherwise the commentary represents how I feel.

But anyway here's a quick rundown of all the categories (except the short films):

Best Picture
Babel; The Departed; Letters From Iwo Jima; Little Miss Sunshine; The Queen

It really is a wide open race this year. But Sunshine seems too small, too minor to be widely considered a "Best Picture." Letters From Iwo Jima simply hasn't made enough money. Babel hasn't made much more than Iwo Jima. The Queen is a darkhorse but a victory would still seem like an upset. The Departed is the only choice that really makes sense. But without a frontrunner it's logical to believe that the votes will be spread out among all five contenders and the winner could have less total votes than any other Best Picture in years.

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio; Ryan Gosling; Peter O'Toole; Will Smith; Forest Whitaker

I think respect for Whitaker's performance among the people who vote on these things has only increased with each award he's won. He's never exactly felt like the sure thing he's turned out to be every step of the way, and that's prevented any feeling that he peaked too soon.

Best Actress
Penélope Cruz; Judi Dench; Helen Mirren; Meryl Streep; Kate Winslet

Mirren has never won an Oscar and she's only been nominated twice before. So even if it feels like she's always winning awards this has been a long time coming. And it's well deserved.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin; Jackie Earle Haley; Djimon Hounsou; Eddie Murphy; Mark Wahlberg

A real toss-up, even though it shouldn't be. Murphy is the true standout. Is it really possible voters won't take him seriously to such a degree they'd consider voting for Mark Wahlberg?? Arkin seems the likely victor in case of a Murphy loss. Haley and Hounsou, the two actors besides Murphy to actually have roles of substance in their films, seem to be out of the running.

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza; Cate Blanchett; Abigail Breslin; Jennifer Hudson; Rinko Kikuchi

Still Hudson's to lose. But if enough voters don't like the thought of a reality show contestant winning an Oscar (for a role where she sings more than she acts, the nerve!!) maybe Barraza will pull an upset. Thankfully she'll probably lose a lot of votes to her co-star. The real question: will we ever see any of the nominees not named Cate Blanchett in an award worthy role again?

Best Director
Clint Eastwood; Stephen Frears; Paul Greengrass; Alejandro González Iñárritu; Martin Scorsese

Scorsese. Yes, it will finally happen. Winning is about timing and luck more than talent, but it's nice to know he's also the most worthy of this group.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat; Children of Men; The Departed; Little Children; Notes On a Scandal

It's not even a fair fight for The Departed here.

Best Original Screenplay
Babel; Letters From Iwo Jima; Little Miss Sunshine; Pan's Labyrinth; The Queen

Little Miss Sunshine. This should be more competitive than it probably will be.

Best Animated Film
Cars; Happy Feet; Monster House

Do I go with my head or my heart? Since Oscar voters aren't known for valuing quality above all else I'll say Cars, the least worthy of the nominees, with its Pixar cred. But I hope I'm wrong.

Best Documentary
Deliver Us From Evil; An Inconvenient Truth; Iraq in Fragments; Jesus Camp; My Country, My Country

An Inconvenient Truth losing would be one of the biggest upsets possible.

Best Foreign Language Film
After the Wedding (Denmark); Days of Glory (Algeria); The Lives of Others (Germany); Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico); Water (Canada)

As great as The Lives of Others is, I really hope Pan's Labyrinth isn't snubbed here.

Best Original Song
"I Need to Wake Up" (An Inconvenient Truth); "Listen" (Dreamgirls); "Love You I Do" (Dreamgirls); "Our Town" (Cars); "Patience" (Dreamgirls)

The trio of Dreamgirls performances should be fun to watch, but even though Listen is critical to the movie's creative success there is stiff competition from I Need to Wake Up, and that one isn't competing with two other songs from the same movie.

Best Art Direction
Dreamgirls; The Good Shepherd; Pan's Labyrinth; Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest; The Prestige

The imagination of Pan's Labyrinth should pay off.

Best Cinematography
The Black Dahlia; Children of Men; The Illusionist; Pan's Labyrinth; The Prestige

Boy, is it still hard to swallow The Black Dahlia as an Oscar nominee, no matter what illustrious credits the cinematographer has in his distant past. Luckily Children of Men should have no trouble taking this home.

Best Costume Design
Curse of the Golden Flower; The Devil Wears Prada; Dreamgirls; Marie Antoinette; The Queen

Marie Antoinette is lavish and Prada's contemporary clothes help drive the "plot" but Dreamgirls has the style and the substance.

Best Editing
Babel; Blood Diamond; Children of Men; The Departed; United 93

Babel is this year's Crash, which won the category last year. And United 93 is pretty showy in editing as well. But The Departed should win, especially if it's on its way to Best Picture.

Best Original Score
Babel; The Good German; Notes On a Scandal; Pan's Labyrinth; The Queen

Having not seen The Good German yet (or heard its score) I'm not quite sure what I'm missing. Babel and The Queen would seem to have a leg up as Best Picture nominees but I'll stand by the haunting music of Pan's Labyrinth.

Best Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest; Poseidon; Superman Returns

Pirates of the Caribbean. The year's biggest movie wins an Oscar.

Best Makeup
Apocalypto; Click; Pan's Labyrinth

Pan's Labyrinth. The year's best movie shouldn't have any trouble winning this Oscar.

Best Sound
Apocalypto; Blood Diamond; Dreamgirls; Flags of Our Fathers; Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Dreamgirls

Best Sound Editing
Apocalypto; Blood Diamond; Flags of Our Fathers; Letters From Iwo Jima; Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Letters From Iwo Jima

If you're keeping track, that's four for The Departed, Dreamgirls and Pan's Labyrinth. Two for An Inconvenient Truth. And no more than one for anything else.

Good girl, bad girl

Two new reviews this week, both limited releases from 2006 expanding a bit: The Dead Girl, a runner-up to my top ten, and the execrable Factory Girl.

Top Ten Films of 2006

Since it's already February it's about time to finally get to this...a look back at 2006. I've had this list in mind since the end of the year but real life has a way of interfering with blogging.

One positive about the delay: it should be easier to find some of the films on this list in nationwide release now (and a few have hit, or are about to hit, DVD). 2006 was not always a great year for moviegoing but a rush of last minute high quality product helped change that. Unfortunately a lot of those titles did not immediately turn up in theaters across the country. Some are still waiting on a wider release.

But whether a film plays on 4 screens or 4000, for one week or six months, I'll take quality anywhere I can find it.

Honorable mentions:

Alfonso Cuarón’s expertly crafted sci-fi think piece Children of Men

The latest successful change of pace for Marc Forster, Stranger Than Fiction, a character-driven comedy with a strong cast led by Will Ferrell and Emma Thompson

Oliver Stone’s World Trade Center and Paul Greengrass’ United 93, two films that struck the perfect tone and style to tell their specific stories of September 11 and will hopefully embolden other talented filmmakers to contribute to the cinematic historical record

Spike Lee’s first true genre film, Inside Man, which is also the latest of his rewarding collaborations with Denzel Washington

I also have high regard for: a pair of action movies done right—Casino Royale and Mission: Impossible III; The Dead Girl, which has the feel of five fascinating short stories captured on film; the refreshing romantic comedy The Holiday; crude but funny TV refugee Borat; two thematically provocative examinations of real women, one—The Queen—universally praised and the other—The Notorious Bettie Page—unjustly overlooked; and The Good Shepherd, an ambitious spy saga that evolves into moving personal drama.

In addition, I’d like to note the more modest achievements of Akeelah and the Bee, Shortbus, Shut Up and Sing, Perfume: The Story of a Murderer, Little Miss Sunshine, Wordplay and Friends with Money among others. Also worth a special mention: David Lynch’s unclassifiable Inland Empire, destined to alienate many more viewers than it will ever captivate. Just consider yourself lucky if you fall under its strange spell.

The Top Ten:

• 10. Half Nelson

American narrative indies took a backseat to documentary and foreign films in 2006 but this specific slice of life from the team of Ryan Fleck and Anna Boden, made with equal parts energy and emotion, kept the scene alive and relevant. Ryan Gosling’s stunning performance underlines the promise of a significant career in the making.


• 9. Dave Chappelle’s Block Party

The year’s most joyful movie combines documentary, music and comedy in a unique achievement from director Michel Gondry. Everything, and everyone, is cause for celebration as comedian Dave Chappelle organizes a kickass block party where one hip-hop/neo-soul superstar takes the stage after another, and sometimes together.


• 8. Little Children

A smart, challenging movie specifically for adults at a time when American filmmakers seem deathly afraid of sexuality. No matter, since few would be able to navigate such complicated grown-up terrain as deftly as Todd Field does here. Kate Winslet is perfection as a suburban mother at an intellectual remove from responsibility.


• 7. Flags of Our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima

Clint Eastwood’s dual World War II stories don’t demand to be seen together but they so brilliantly enrich each other that it’s a shame to consider them separately. Narratively distinct but stylistically of a piece, the films share a thematic concern with the emotional, psychological and spiritual tolls of war. Philosophically provocative works from a filmmaker who continues to surprise.


• 6. Volver

Since he’s delivered his fourth great film in a row it would be easy to take Pedro Almodóvar for granted, but why would you want to? His latest indispensable masterwork overflows with trademark humor and passion. A movie screen hardly seems big enough to contain Penélope Cruz, who happily thrusts herself into the role of a lifetime.


• 5. The Lives of Others

All of the qualities of a rich, textured novel are present in Florian Henckle von Donnersmarck’s remarkable debut feature. A fascinating look inside East Germany before the fall of the Berlin Wall centered around an intimate character drama, the film is equally successful as gripping melodrama and history lesson. Ulrich Mühe’s Stasi officer was one of the year’s most memorable screen characters.


• 4. Happy Feet

First and foremost the year’s grandest visual achievement, it’s a family-friendly action/musical/comedy extravaganza. But it doesn’t stop there. Director George Miller skillfully pushes the limits of what’s “allowed” in English-language animation and comes up with a final product that appeals to the eyes, the heart, the mind and, oh yes, the feet.


• 3. Dreamgirls

Bill Condon’s dazzling showbiz saga remains unabashedly entertaining while living up to a daunting cinematic heritage. It’s exceptional filmmaking, both old fashioned and contemporary. Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy set the bar for a flawless ensemble—how refreshing it is to see performers who can really sing, in a musical.


• 2. The Departed

If only every remake used its source material as a sturdy foundation to support deeper emotions, a grander scale, richer roles for an enviable ensemble (including playful Jack Nicholson, breakout Vera Farmiga and career-best Leonardo DiCaprio) and a thoroughly authentic new setting. Hollywood would be a better place. Of course the same would be true if Martin Scorsese simply directed a film a year.


• 1. Pan’s Labyrinth

Guillermo del Toro's masterpiece explores and embodies the power of imagination. Set in the past, but relevant to the present, it ultimately feels timeless in the way it merges a simple, but lovingly detailed, fantasy world with the all too real horrors of war and fascism. Expert craftsmanship, compelling performances—including Sergi López as evil personified—and lyrical storytelling mark this singular creation. It's the year's most beautiful film, and also the best.

The weekend's #1 movie

is The Messengers, which I saw and reviewed on opening day. There's nothing notable about it.

Friday movies

The good news is that a lot of Oscar nominees are expanding this weekend: Pan's Labyrinth, The Queen, Volver and Letters From Iwo Jima are all adding screens, Dreamgirls is still in wide release and The Departed is getting a full on re-release.

The bad news is there are new movies opening as well. I've reviewed Catch and Release and Blood and Chocolate. Smokin' Aces isn't supposed to be much better and Epic Movie, which surely is what it is, didn't screen for critics.

How I Did

Best Picture
Four out of five (Babel, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen)

Dreamgirls obviously missed out and Letters From Iwo Jima, which I had as an alternate, got in.

Best Director
Four out of five (Clint Eastwood, Stephen Frears, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Martin Scorsese)

I thought Bill Condon might be vulnerable but I never would’ve predicted Dreamgirls missing Best Picture, which makes his absence here more understandable. My alternate pick Paul Greengrass (United 93) was the token nominee of a film not up for Best Picture.

Best Actor
Three and a half out of five (Peter O’Toole, Will Smith, Forest Whitaker…Leonardo DiCaprio)

Both of my alternates scored instead. Thankfully Ryan Gosling got in but Sacha Baron Cohen did not. And I had the right actor but wrong film (just like Oscar) for DiCaprio’s nomination.

Best Actress
Five for five (Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet)

Best Supporting Actor
Three out of five (Alan Arkin, Jackie Earle Haley, Eddie Murphy)

I had Departed’s Jack Nicholson and Queen’s Michael Sheen but Blood Diamond’s Djimon Hounsou, an alternate pick, and Departed’s Mark Whalberg, who I mentioned but didn’t believe in, made the cut.

Best Supporting Actress
Four out of five (Adriana Barraza, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Hudson, Rinko Kikuchi)

Alternate pick Abigail Breslin happily made it in instead of Prada’s Emily Blunt.

Best Original Screenplay
Four out of five (Babel, Little Miss Sunshine, Pan’s Labyrinth, The Queen)

Alternate pick Letters From Iwo Jima (stronger than I expected overall) was nominated, United 93 was not.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Four out of five (Children of Men, The Departed, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal)

Common sense prevailed and The Devil Wears Prada’s script is not nominated. I predicted the wrong token nomination for Borat, which turned up here instead of Best Actor.

Best Animated Film
Three for three (Cars, Happy Feet, Monster House)

Thankfully. Now let’s see the penguins take down Pixar!

Best Documentary (Feature Length)
Three for five (Deliver Us From Evil, An Inconvenient Truth, Iraq in Fragments)

I had Jesus Camp as an alternate. My Country, My Country is the fifth nominee.

Best Foreign Language Film
Four for five (Days of Glory, The Lives of Others, Pan’s Labyrinth, Water)

Denmark’s After the Wedding made it in but Spain’s Volver, ludicrously, did not.

Best Art Direction/Production Design
Three for five (Dreamgirls, Pan’s Labyrinth, Pirates of the Caribbean)

I thought Children of Men and Marie Antoinette would pop up here but instead nominations went to The Good Shepherd (the only nom for a very solid film) and The Prestige.

Best Cinematography
Three for five (Children of Men, The Illusionist, Pan’s Labyrinth)

Not a single Best Picture in the running in this category. I thought Babel and Dreamgirls would crack the list but instead: Cinematographers’ Guild nominee The Black Dahlia and relative surprise The Prestige.

Best Costume Design
Four out of five (Curse of the Golden Flower, The Devil Wears Prada, Dreamgirls, Marie Antoinette)

I had The Queen as an alternate, which made the list over my prediction Pan’s Labyrinth.

Best Editing
Three out of five (Babel, The Departed, United 93)

Surprisingly light on Best Picture nominees. I thought Dreamgirls and Little Miss Sunshine would make it in but nominations instead went to “thoughtful” action films Blood Diamond and Children of Men.

Best Makeup
Two out of three (Apocalypto, Pan’s Labyrinth)

Ok so maybe the makeup in Click is really good, because it landed a nomination over the showy Pirates of the Caribbean. I don’t really want to find out.

Best Score
Two out of five (Babel, The Good German)

I had the right composers but the wrong films for two of the nominations: Philip Glass was nominated for Notes on a Scandal not The Illusionist, and Alexandre Desplat for The Queen and not his superior work on The Painted Veil. Both were my alternates. I really can’t say what possessed me to predict The Da Vinci Code over actual nominee Pan’s Labyrinth (easily one of the year’s great scores).

Best Song
Three out of five (Cars, Dreamgirls, An Inconvenient Truth)

All three Dreamgirls songs made it in but only one was an alternate pick for me. It might be a bad omen that Happy Feet missed out here, but it’s a good thing that Bobby couldn’t get a single nomination.

Best Sound
Four out of five (Blood Diamond, Dreamgirls, Flags of Our Fathers, Pirates of the Caribbean)

I predicted Babel but Apocalypto made it in.

Best Sound Editing
Three out of five (Apocalypto, Flags of Our Fathers, Pirates of the Caribbean)

Blood Diamond and Letters From Iwo Jima are also nominated in the other hotly contested sound category. (Not having a clue what I was doing, I predicted Cars and The Departed.)

Best Visual Effects
Two out of three (Pirates of the Caribbean, Superman Returns)

I thought Poseidon would be too clunky and trashy to nominate. I was wrong. And Casino Royale, which I incorrectly predicted, was completely shut out today.


Overall: 70 out of 99, or 71%. Counting the alternates: 83 out of 99, 84%.

Just watch the SAGs instead...

Today's Oscar acting nominees match the Screen Actors Guild nominations EXACTLY with the lone exception of Leonardo DiCaprio's "supporting" nomination for The Departed, replaced at the Oscars with his co-star Mark Wahlberg. zzzz...

I'm torn...

The Good:
Abigail Breslin nominated for Best Supporting Actress
Ryan Gosling nominated for Best Actor
Letters From Iwo Jima (a deserving film) nominated for Best Picture and Director
The Devil Wears Prada NOT nominated for Screenplay (or anything besides Streep and costumes)
Six nominations for Pan's Labyrinth
Dreamgirls getting the most nominations overall
Expected nominations for The Departed, Martin Scorsese, Jennifer Hudson, Eddie Murphy, Penelope Cruz, Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren, Judi Dench, Forest Whitaker, Jackie Earl Haley, Happy Feet, The Lives of Others

The Bad:
Leonardo DiCaprio nominated for Blood Diamond instead of The Departed
Dreamgirls' exclusion from the top categories (Picture & Director)
Volver not nominated for anything besides Penelope Cruz (including foreign film)
Mark Wahlberg as The Departed's ONLY acting nominee
Michael Sheen failing to be recognized for The Queen
The Black Dahlia is an Oscar nominee (for cinematography)
Poseidon is an Oscar nominee (for visual effects)

Those are pretty bad, especially the first four.

I still believe this is The Departed's Best Picture to lose. But Babel is now the most nominated Best Picture (7 nominations vs Departed's 5...The Queen has 6, Sunshine and Iwo Jima have 4). Only Babel and The Departed are nominated in the "key" Best Editing category. The dynamic has really changed. And sadly I think the race is a lot less interesting without Dreamgirls.

Oscar nominee predictions 2006

Oscar nominations are due out Tuesday morning, so it's annual prediction time.

It's really difficult to predict how Clint Eastwood's one-two punch of Flags of Our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima will factor in to this year's race. Will the films cancel each other out, since neither one really took off on their own at the box office?

Other wildcards include the 9/11 films (can Oliver Stone really make a Sept. 11 movie that gets zero nominations?) and box office underperformers like Blood Diamond, Bobby, The Good German and The Painted Veil. They should be shut out of major categories but are they doomed to go unrecognized entirely?

For "historical" context: last year's predictions, and how I did.

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Alternates: Letters From Iwo Jima, United 93

There's not much guessing involved here. The Producers Guild and Directors Guild both selected these five nominees. Anything else would be a big upset. (Incidentally Little Miss Sunshine won the top prize from the Producers Guild this weekend. Not a bad sign but not a major harbinger of things to come either: six out of the last ten winners went on to win Best Picture but the last two winners, Brokeback Mountain and The Aviator, did not.)

Best Director
Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

Alternates: Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris (Little Miss Sunshine), Paul Greengrass (United 93)

The Sunshine team managed a nomination from the Directors Guild and that's impressive but I don't think Picture and Director will match 5/5 this year. Bill Condon also, unfortunately, feels vulnerable. Children of Men's Alfonso Cuaron is a hotly championed contender, but this is a year overflowing with possibilities.

Best Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)

Is Borat too big a sensation to ignore? And Half Nelson too small a movie to make an impact? That's what I'm thinking right now. But I'm most anxious over what voters decided to do about DiCaprio's double duty.

Best Actress
Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)

I'm not even going to bother with alternates. Maybe in another year Annette Bening (Running with Scissors), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby) and even Beyonce (Dreamgirls) would've had a shot. But this year anyone other than these five would be a big surprise.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Jackie Earl Haley (Little Children)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Michael Sheen (The Queen)

Alternates: Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), Brad Pitt (Babel)

The most frustrating category to predict. Only Eddie Murphy was on both the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild lists. I'm going on a limb by predicting Sheen, who has been ignored so far. I'm not sold on Arkin but I'm not sure who else to turn to. Pitt's star power, and the relative popularity of his film, could serve him well but I still believe the performance is underwhelming. And Golden Globe nominee Mark Wahlberg (The Departed) is a popular contender, but his part is so small...not that that hurt William Hurt last year.

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza (Babel)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)

Alternates: Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Toni Collette (Little Miss Sunshine)

Everyone here seems like a lock except Blunt, who I'm predicting will upset the Sunshine contenders (though I'd much prefer a nom for Breslin). Shoulda-beens like Emma Thompson (Stranger Than Fiction), Vera Farmiga (The Departed) and Maggie Gyllenhaal (World Trade Center) have been ignored in awards leading up to this. And Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration) got some critical support but her movie is weak, and forgotten at this point.

Best Original Screenplay
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
United 93

Alternates: Letters From Iwo Jima, Volver

I want to work in Volver, Almodovar could develop into a perennial Oscar pick the way Woody Allen was for awhile, but I'm not sure what to drop. Stranger Than Fiction got a Writers Guild nom but I'm afraid it will have to make due with just that.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Children of Men
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

Alternates: Dreamgirls, Thank You For Smoking

A tough, strange category. The Departed is clearly a lock but beyond that...Little Children isn't a very popular film and the other three scripts, frankly, aren't that great. But genre will probably hold back Dreamgirls. I'm skeptical of Smoking but it earned a Writers Guild nom. So did Borat, in this category, so I assume Oscar voters will have to consider it here. There's also The Last King of Scotland, co-scripted by a hot writer of the moment (Peter Morgan, who also wrote The Queen).

Best Animated Film
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

Alternates: Flushed Away, Over the Hedge

DreamWorks muscle might be enough to push in Hedge. Fondness for Aardman could do the trick with Flushed.

Best Documentary (Feature Length)
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jonestown: The Life and Death of People's Temple
The War Tapes

Alternates: Jesus Camp, Shut Up & Sing

Beyond Inconvenient Truth, the likely winner, I'm just guessing really, but I'd like to see Shut Up & Sing actually make the cut.

Best Foreign Language Film
Days of Glory (Algeria)
The Lives of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)
Volver (Spain)
Water (Canada)

Alternates: Avenue Montaigne (France), Black Book (Netherlands)

This category had a "semi-final" round this year and only nine films made it in. Denmark's After the Wedding and Switzerland's Vitus (the only one I'd never heard of) are also in the running. There are only 30 people total voting on this category...that could be dangerous.

Best Art Direction/Production Design
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Alternates: Babel, Curse of the Golden Flower

I also buy into predictions for Flags of Our Fathers, Letters From Iwo Jima, The Good German, Apocalypto and The Queen.

Best Cinematography
Babel
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth

Alternates: The Departed, The Good Shepherd

It'd be nice to see one of Eastwood's films represented here but this category had the strangest corresponding Guild nominations of the year. I don't believe the Oscar list will be so removed from the Best Picture contenders.

Best Costume Design
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth

Alternates: The Illusionist, The Queen

Can Prada buck the preference for period work by using clothes to drive the story? Who cares really? A nomination for Little Miss Sunshine would be a lot more fun. Other period contenders include Bobby, The Good German, Miss Potter, The Painted Veil, The Prestige and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest.

Best Editing
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
United 93

Alternates: Letters From Iwo Jima, The Queen

Brokeback Mountain's failure to land a nomination here last year turned out to be a warning sign of the foul play yet to come. So watch this one closely.

Best Makeup
Apocalypto
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Alternates: The Prestige, X-Men: The Last Stand

The only other films qualified are Click and The Santa Clause 3. I feel pretty confident in my three choices.

Best Score
Babel
The Da Vinci Code
The Good German
The Illusionist
The Painted Veil

Alternates: Notes on a Scandal, The Queen

Philip Glass is responsible for Notes and Illusionist and Alexandre Desplat is behind Painted and Queen. So either, or both, could easily be double nominees. I was also thinking of Apocalyto and Volver here.

Best Song
I Need to Wake Up (An Inconvenient Truth)
Listen (Dreamgirls)
Never Gonna Break My Faith (Bobby)
Our Town (Cars)
Song of the Heart (Happy Feet)

Alternates: Patience (Dreamgirls), Til the End of Time (Little Miss Sunshine)

Ugh, this category is always frustrating. It could wind up with less than five nominees, like last year. Voters could show an unexpected fondness for indie rock and go for the Sunshine song, especially since it's a Picture contender. Dreamgirls has one other original song: Love You I Do. Sheryl Crow has songs from both Cars (Real Gone) and the instant-disaster Home of the Brave (Try Not to Remember). I also feel like mentioning Ordinary Miracle from Charlotte's Web and O Kazakhstan from Borat as potential spoilers.

Best Sound
Babel
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Alternates: Casino Royale, The Departed

Best Sound Editing
Apocalypto
Cars
The Departed
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Alternates: Casino Royale, Superman Returns

Best Visual Effects
Casino Royale
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns

Alternates: Night at the Museum, Poseidon

The only other possibilities are Eragon and X-Men: The Last Stand, both frightening. I wouldn't be surprised if Pirates and Superman were the only nominees.

Two of last year's best reviewed

Reviews are up for:

Pan's Labyrinth
and
Volver

It's hard to find the words to do justice to the masterful Pan's Labyrinth, especially in a brief review. If I had a second pass, after some edits, I might have tried to stress the importance of the military storyline (the "real" sections of the film). But it's best to simply see and experience the film for yourself.

I'm also responsible for the Viva Pedro survey/photo gallery attached to the Volver review.

And the latest lame 2007 release: The Hitcher. It's January, whatever.

Golden Globes preview

We're still in the thick of award season and all of the major Hollywood guilds have announced their nominations: Actors, Directors, Producers, Writers, Cinematographers, Editors. The big news there is that both the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild selected the same five nominees: Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen. It seems like it will take an act of the movie gods to prevent these five movies from being Oscar's Best Picture nominees.

But there's still a lot that feels up in the air about this year's awards, and the Golden Globes may give us the some clues in a few of the more competitive categories.

Nothing that happens at the Golden Globe awards will actually alter who will or will not be nominated for an Oscar. The votes have been cast, the ballots were due in yesterday. That said, there is momentum to be gained, or lost, for potential winners.

A few Globe categories are hardly in play. Helen Mirren, Sacha Baron Cohen and Meryl Streep are sure bets in the lead film categories. A loss for any would be a major upset. It should also be a given that all three will deliver entertaining speeches.

Also likely but not necessarily locked: Dreamgirls duo Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy in the supporting categories. Hudson will face roughly the same competition at SAG and probably on Oscar night. Tomorrow could/should be the first of three big wins for her. Murphy is the only Globe supporting actor nominee also nominated by SAG, so a win or a loss for him probably doesn't mean as much.

But the real races to watch...

Lead actor in a drama:
This could be where Forest Whitaker builds on the dominance he's established from the critics' awards and steamrolls his way to an Oscar.
OR
This could mark a shift toward support for Peter O'Toole or Will Smith. If either were to win here and go on to win at SAG they'd be the man to beat on Oscar night.
OR
Double nominee Leonardo DiCaprio could beat himself. Again, what happens at the Globes doesn't matter, his Oscar nomination fate has already been sealed: he'll be up for The Departed, Blood Diamond, neither, or theoretically both (if enough Oscar voters placed him in lead for Blood Diamond and supporting for The Departed). A Globe victory for Leo would be huge, but a lead Oscar nom for The Departed is the more important nail-biter.

Foreign language film:
Two of the nominees: Apocalypto and Letters from Iwo Jima are not eligible for Oscar's foreign film category because they're American productions. The other three: Germany's The Lives of Others, Spain's Volver and Mexico's Pan's Labyrinth are considered the Oscar front runners.

Eastwood's Iwo Jima has been faring miserably so far in award season, yet it still has to be considered the favorite here. A Globe would be nice but probably won't help increase its box office or awards traction. However, a win for one of the films from another country would be big and help give it prime positioning for Oscar.

Animated film:
This is the first year the Globes have had this category and it will be interesting to see how they vote. At times there's a little too much emphasis put on the "foreign" part of the Hollywood Foreign Press organization that votes on the Globes, but adhering to that cliche Happy Feet should have the edge. Cars was still a bigger hit and comes from well respected Pixar. Monster House is a scrappy underdog.

At any rate it's generally expected these will be the three Oscar nominees for animated film as well. So a win here is probably important.

And the biggies:
Comedy/musical and drama film:
Neither of these feel as up in the air as the other categories but they do seem like honest two way races.

Dreamgirls should have the edge in comedy/musical but Little Miss Sunshine is seen as a possible upset Oscar victor. Beating Dreamgirls for a Globe would make that momentum snowball.

The Departed seems like the likely drama champ (and Scorsese a likely winner in directing, though the Globes don't "owe" him anything the way Oscar does) but the Globes showered Babel with nominations and that "foreign" part of Hollywood Foreign Press is enough to convince pundits it has a shot at a big win. Sometimes, perception is everything. I don't expect Babel to be a real threat for an Oscar win but a Globe victory does seem possible.


On the TV side I'll be cheering for Ugly Betty in both its categories and expect America Ferrera to win. I'm also hoping for an Alec Baldwin win (anything to bring more attention to the undeservedly struggling 30 Rock). And any win for Bleak House would be great (but unlikely).

Otherwise TV is a bit of a snooze. I haven't seen most of the telefilms, including Elizabeth I and Tsunami, or Showtime's Dexter. Wins for Heroes would be nice but I'd rather see that show prove itself a little more.

I'd also love to see Edie Falco win, both to recognize an undervalued season of The Sopranos and to acknowledge that her competition is incredibly lame.

Movies I probably wouldn't have seen...

if I didn't have my current job:

Arthur and the Invisibles
Stomp the Yard

And also newly posted this week: Notes on a Scandal

Reviews: Two good, one not so much

It's been a long wait for Little Children to expand beyond a handful of markets but it finally seems to be happening.

Also reviewed: the nutty Perfume and the unforgivably, if not unexpectedly, lame Happily N'Ever After.

And just a note, Knights of Prosperity "encores" tonight at 9 on ABC and is also available to view on the network's website. Catch it fast, before they cancel it. Which probably won't be too long from now.

Top Ten lists coming soon...

Good TV: Knights of Prosperity

This season's standout new half-hour comedy, The Knights of Prosperity, finally arrives tonight at 9 on ABC. It's a smart, single camera show about a group of blue collar guys (and one attractive woman) who decide to improve their status by robbing a celebrity. In the pilot they set their sites on Mick Jagger (who plays himself in very funny segments throughout tonight's episode).

If the series had premiered last year as originally planned it would've been one of my top picks for Fall TV, but the network decided to hold off until midseason. At the time I thought that might be a good move, but it's possible Knights could've benefited from the Dancing with the Stars lead in that Ted Danson's Help Me Help You squandered. Now Knights goes out with According to Jim as a lead-in...the differences couldn't be more striking.

Knights stars vaguely familiar TV faces like Donal Logue, Sofia Vergara and Lenny Venito but their credits are not as important as the chemistry they develop as an ensemble. Each of the six characters is well defined, unique and smartly cast. One of the show's most immediately appealing traits is the lack of cookie-cutter casting.

The writing and direction for the pilot are equally sharp. It's impossible to say if the show will sustain its heist-driven concept, but the writing and cast chemistry should make Knights a welcome addition to the quality TV comedy landscape.

If you miss tonight's premiere you can still catch it on ABC.com tomorrow.

Knights is paired with another new comedy, In Case of Emergency. I haven't seen it, but I hear it's not so good.

FX strikes out

I'm not finished looking back at 2006 yet but I already want to declare the new FX series Dirt, which premieres tonight, the worst show of 2007. This is the kind of disaster only a network normally associated with quality could produce.

It's not worth discussing the details of the show other than to say it has some of the worst writing, acting and filmmaking you can currently find in scripted television. What's notable is where you find it. If Dirt was airing on Lifetime it wouldn't be much cause for concern. But coming from FX—home to The Shield, Rescue Me, Nip/Tuck, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia and scores of noble misfires—this is pretty shocking. It goes beyond HBO's recent atrocity, Lucky Louie, which at least had a decent concept despite its horrendous execution.

After just a few minutes of Dirt's pilot episode it's obvious that the show never should've made it to air in its current form. It demands reshoots, rewriting, recasting. Courteney Cox Arquette, who is both executive producer and series lead, gives a performance so wooden and inept it's just embarrassing. But there's really no one to blame except the FX executives who ushered this on the air.

They could've said no. Luckily viewers can correct that mistake.

2006 in Review

This look back at movies in 2006 is a personal favorite among the pieces I've actually had published somewhere.

I had a good deal of freedom with this but it's a general, not really a personal, look back. I had to acknowledge a few movies I haven't even seen, but the opinions are about 90% mine. And I'm happy with how it turned out.

I'll post a personal top 10 movies of 2006 later in the week.

And also, a quick mention of a worthwhile section of Entertainment Weekly's year end issue. Their "Great Performances" are well chosen, as usual. Already having covered Helen Mirren (The Queen, Elizabeth I, Prime Suspect), Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat, Talladega Nights), Kiefer Sutherland (24, no mention of The Sentinel—heh), Beyoncé (Dreamgirls but really more for B'Day and its single Irreplaceable and music video Ring the Alarm), Daniel Craig (Casino Royale), Stephen Colbert (The Colbert Report, White House Correspondents' Dinner), Justin Timberlake (FutureSex/LoveSounds) and Spike Lee (Inside Man, When the Levees Broke) in their "Entertainers of the Year" section, the Great Performances include:

Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls
Penélope Cruz in Volver
Kate Winslet in Little Children
Forest Whitaker and James McAvoy in The Last King of Scotland
Rufus Wainwright's Live At Carnegie Hall concert
James Callis on Battlestar Galactica
Alec Baldwin on 30 Rock
Martin Scorsese for The Departed
Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson
Rinko Kikuchi in Babel
The Women of Big Love (Jeanne Tripplehorn, Chloe Sëvigny, Ginnifer Goodwin)

And also Bill Nighy for the play The Vertical Hour, the guys from the Mac ads and OK Go at the MTV Video Music Awards.

And their "Breakouts" section finds room for America Ferrera (Ugly Betty), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada, who has better stuff ahead of her I'm sure), Masi Oka (Heroes) and kicks off with the cast of High School Musical.

It's a big miss to not mention the dual achievement of Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed and Blood Diamond). Michael Sheen's standout support in The Queen and 24's hypeworthy couple Gregory Itzin and Jean Smart are also notable absences. But you have to draw the line somewhere, and EW did a fine job.

Latest reviews

I'll have end of the year stuff coming soon but for now my latest reviews...

Dreamgirls
The History Boys
We Are Marshall
Charlotte's Web

Sometimes editing hurts.

Globe reactions

Late, as usual, but here we go.

Nominees are here if you want to follow along.

It's a fairly blah list overall, despite some very deserving (but mostly expected) nominees. Babel leading the field in the film categories pretty much sums it up. I wasn't excited by that movie and I'm not excited by these nominations.

Bobby's semi-surprising nomination as best drama film stands out as particularly bad. The Globes often make lousy choices but as I noted in my previous post I give them credit for skipping over Crash last year (although it's likely they would've nominated it if the voters knew it was headed for its Oscar victory, Globe voters always want to beat Oscar and Emmy to the punch). But Bobby, a sloppy drama that merits zero award consideration, is a far worse film than Crash.

Another poor choice worth singling out: Evangeline Lilly's lead actress nomination for Lost. Yeah, that's right, Kate is the only acting nominee from Lost. It would be hard to justify in any year, but it's especially moronic when Sally Field in Brothers and Sisters (how'd she miss out?), Jeanne Tripplehorn in Big Love and Mary McDonnell in Battlestar Galactica go unnominated.

And yet they nominated Ellen Pompeo for Grey's Anatomy. Lame.

TV was pretty much as expected, but it was a respectable surprise to see Masi Oka actually get a nom as Heroes' favorite Hiro.

It's par for the course these days to undervalue The Sopranos (Edie Falco got a nom but not Gandolfini or the series) and skip over Battlestar Galactica, Deadwood and The Shield. The Globes had a chance to right Emmy's wrong and recognize Forest Whitaker's work in The Shield, but they didn't. It's even weirder since one of the year's biggest Globe trends was double nominations and Whitaker is unsurprisingly nominated for his work in The Last King of Scotland.

Among the actual double nominees: Toni Collette, Emily Blunt, Chiwetel Ejiofor (a real surprise nominee in film's lead actor comedy category for Kinky Boots) and Annette Bening.

Clint Eastwood and Leonardo DiCaprio scored two nominations in the same category (directing and lead actor drama respectively). Clint can be a double nominee come Oscar time but, due to category rules, Leo can't. That causes concern that his two great performances this year may divide his support and he could wind up without an Oscar nomination. That would be a shame, since he truly is the year's Best Actor thanks to his career-best work in The Departed.

Helen Mirren also competes with herself in the telefilm lead actress category (for PBS' Prime Suspect and HBO's Elizabeth I, neither of which I've seen) and she trumps all multiple Globe nominees with a third mention for The Queen. Unless her TV work splits votes it's hard to imagine her not winning two awards. (If she does split votes maybe Annette Bening will make up for her Emmy loss, or Bleak House's very deserving Gillian Anderson.)

One of the biggest Globe surprises (besides Chiwetel Ejiofor): Maggie Gyllenhaal's best actress nomination for Sherrybaby, a movie which hasn't even made $300,000 in the U.S. Love Maggie, haven't seen the movie yet.

However, World Trade Center, another, much more successful, film featuring Maggie Gyllenhaal was shut out. Ditto fellow 9/11 drama United 93.

On the other hand arty suburban nightmare Little Children fared a little better than expected (a good thing). Nominations for best drama film, best actress and best screenplay might finally convince New Line to open the movie in more than a handful of cities.

The inaugural Animated film category was just as expected with Cars, Happy Feet and Monster House getting nominations. Go penguins!

Foreign language film also was predictable but satisfying with U.S. productions Apocalypto and Letters From Iwo Jima nominated with Germany's The Lives of Others and Spanish language Pan's Labyrinth and Volver. I haven't seen the American ones yet but the other three are easily among the year's best films.

Is it a good thing or a bad thing when foreign film is a much more exciting race than the main best picture categories?

Critics awards and Globes preview

The Golden Globe nominations will be announced in just a few hours but before the film award focus shifts to those I should acknowledge several critics groups that have announced awards in the past week or so.

The Los Angeles film critics and the National Board of Review both selected Clint Eastwood's Letters From Iwo Jima as the best film of 2006. I haven't seen the film yet but I look forward to it, especially since I immensely enjoyed Eastwood's WWII companion piece Flags of our Fathers.

The New York film critics went with United 93, a critical favorite earlier this year.

All three of these groups selected The Last King of Scotland's Forest Whitaker and The Queen's Helen Mirren as the year's best actor and actress (although Whitaker tied with Borat's Sacha Baron Cohen in Los Angeles).

Other key critics groups to announce awards include Boston film critics (who selected The Departed as the year's best film), Washington D.C. critics (United 93), New York online critics (The Queen) and San Francisco critics (Little Children). (And if you're dying to see their choices in other categories check out Movie City News.)

The Broadcast Film Critics also announced their nominations in a number of categories (they seem to pride themselves on trying to predict Oscar nominations, which makes their selections less interesting than other organizations) and AFI announced its annual top ten list of American films (and also TV shows).

2006 has developed into a pretty respectable year for films and the diversity in these awards demonstrates that to at least some degree. But the Globes will be the first awards of the year to really catch the general public's interest (and the only until Oscar nominations come out).

This year's presumed Oscar frontrunners will be scattered across three categories at the Globes making for a very broad race. Expect to see The Departed and The Queen nominated for best drama film, Dreamgirls and Little Miss Sunshine competing in best comedy/musical and Letters From Iwo Jima regulated to the foreign film category (per Globe rules). (And yes those five films are the top Oscar contenders for Best Picture.)

Babel has deservedly seen its Oscar hopes fade (due mostly to poor box office) but it should be up for drama film here along with some combination of Flags of our Fathers, United 93, World Trade Center, Notes on a Scandal, The Pursuit of Happyness and The Painted Veil. While Borat, The Devil Wears Prada, For Your Consideration and Stranger Than Fiction will be angling to join in the comedy/musical fight. Happy Feet, one of the year's best films, would have a stronger shot at a comedy/musical nomination if the Globes hadn't recently introduced an animated film category.

Of course we could be in for a repeat of last year's unexpected Globe nominations, where smaller, more unlikely, films like Match Point and A History of Violence made the cut. Films as varied as Bobby, Children of Men, Half Nelson, Little Children, Miss Potter and A Prairie Home Companion would fit the bill this year.

It's worth noting that last year's "Best" Picture come Oscar time wasn't even nominated by the Globes. They'll always have that working in their favor.

On the TV side I'm most interested in how several new series will fare. I expect noms for Heroes (drama series), Ugly Betty (comedy series, lead actress and maybe supporting actress for Vanessa Williams), 30 Rock (lead actor and possibly comedy series), Brothers and Sisters (lead actress for Sally Field, longer shot Calista Flockhart, even longer shot Rachel Griffiths and fairly long shot for drama series) and probably Studio 60 (maybe drama series, maybe lead actor/actress, maybe Sarah Paulson in supporting). Showtime's Dexter also likely has a shot at drama series and lead actor nominations.

Other key comedy contenders include Entourage, The Office, My Name is Earl, Scrubs, Desperate Housewives, Weeds and presumably Arrested Development (which aired five episodes in 2006). There's also Two and a Half Men if they want to be boring, or It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia if they want to be adventurous. Curb Your Enthusiasm sits this year out.

Dramas eligible include 24, The Sopranos, Deadwood, Big Love, Lost, Grey's Anatomy, House, The Shield, Battlestar Galactica and Rescue Me. Nominating any series outside of this list or the new contenders mentioned above would be a real surprise (even the critically acclaimed Friday Night Lights, given the competition).

By the time anyone reads this nominations will probably have been announced and you'll know how right or wrong I am.