I don't have many more reactions to add, it was pretty easy to take in and react to this morning. Instead I'll offer a few random tidbits:
Last year that all five Best Picture nominees also received Best Director nominations: 1981 (Warren Beatty's Reds, Hugh Hudson's Chariots of Fire, Louis Malle's Atlantic City, Mark Rydell's On Golden Pond and Steven Spielberg's Raiders of the Lost Ark; Beatty won for director, Chariots won picture)
Number of years running the Best Picture nominees match the Directors Guild of America nominations: 4
Last year my favorite film of the year was nominated for Best Picture: 2001 (Traffic)
Last year my favorite film of the year won Best Picture: 2000 (American Beauty) (Go Brokeback!)
Last year four films on my top ten were nominated for Best Picture: 2005 (last year - The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, Sideways; this year - Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night, and Good Luck., Munich; and the fifth nominee in both years, Ray and Crash, was nowhere near my list)
Percentage of nominations I correctly predicted: 78%
Percentage of final nominees I correctly predicted or listed as an alternate: 85%
Percentage of correct predictions in the top six categories: 87% (90% with alternates)
Here's how I did, category by category:
Best Picture
I got four out of five: Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Crash and Good Night, and Good Luck. The fifth nominee, Munich, was an alternate pick. My incorrect prediction was Walk the Line.
Best Director
Also four out of five: George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck.), Paul Haggis (Crash), Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain), Bennett Miller (Capote). My alternate pick, Steven Spielberg (Munich), trumped my prediction David Cronenberg (A History of Violence).
Best Actor
Direct hit: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote), Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow), Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain), Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line), David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
Best Actress
Four out of five: Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents), Felicity Huffman (Transamerica), Charlize Theron (North Country), Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line). And I was happy to be wrong because it meant my alternate pick Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice) was nominated instead of Zhang Ziyi (Memoirs of a Geisha).
Best Supporting Actor
Four out of five: George Clooney (Syriana), Matt Dillon (Crash), Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man), Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain). My "daring" prediction of Terrence Howard (Crash) is replaced on the actual list with the closest thing to main category surprise: William Hurt (A History of Violence).
Best Supporting Actress
Five for five: Amy Adams (Junebug) (yay!), Catherine Keener (Capote), Frances McDormand (North Country), Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener), Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Five for five: Brokeback Mountain, Capote, The Constant Gardener, A History of Violence, Munich
Best Original Screenplay
Five for five: Crash, Good Night, and Good Luck., Match Point, The Squid and the Whale, Syriana
Best Animated Film
I'm very happy to get this one right! Three for three: Howl's Moving Castle, Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Best Foreign Language Film
A surprising four out of five: Joyeux Noel (France), Paradise Now (Palestine), Sophie Scholl-The Final Days (Germany), Tsotsi (South Africa). I predicted Hungary's Holocaust-related Fateless instead of actual nominee, Italy's Don't Tell.
Best Documentary (Feature Length)
Three out of five: Enron: The Smartest Guys In the Room, March of the Penguins, Murderball. I missed Darwin's Nightmare and Street Fight.
Best Art Direction
Three out of five: Good Night, and Good Luck., King Kong, Memoirs of a Geisha. I incorrectly said Brokeback Mountain and Walk the Line instead of Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (a real surprise to me) and Pride & Prejudice.
Best Cinematography
Three out of five: Brokeback Mountain, Good Night, and Good Luck., Memoirs of a Geisha. I incorrectly said The Constant Gardener and King Kong. I mentioned actual nominees Batman Begins and The New World, but not as alternates.
Best Costume Design
Four out of five: Memoirs of a Geisha, Mrs. Henderson Presents, Pride & Prejudice, Walk the Line. I went with a wild card pick, Casanova, but the Oscars went with Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.
Best Editing
Three out of five: Capote, The Constant Gardener, Crash. I said Brokeback and Good Night, Oscar said Cinderella Man and The Constant Gardener.
Best Makeup
Two out of three: The Chronicles of Narnia, Cinderella Man. In my eagerness to predict a near shut out of Star Wars: Episode III I selected it as an alternate and incorrectly said The New World would get a nom instead.
Best Original Score
Four out of five: Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha, Munich, Pride & Prejudice. I'm a little surprised that Cinderella Man missed out but it did, and The Constant Gardener got in.
Best Original Song
Two out of three: "In the Deep" (Crash), "Travelin' Thru" (Transamerica). With five picks (no one knew for sure how many would be nominated in this category) I should've nailed this. But I predicted "Hustle & Flow" from Hustle & Flow would be nominated. Right movie, wrong song. Instead it was "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp." This is probably the first year in a long time, maybe ever, when all the original song nominees are from films that are also nominated in an acting category.
Best Sound
Three out of five: King Kong, Memoirs of a Geisha, Walk the Line. I said Batman Begins and Munich but instead both of my alternate picks made the cut (the lion's roar of Chronicles of Narnia and the alien invasion of War of the Worlds).
Best Sound Editing
Two out of three: King Kong, War of the Worlds. I said Chronicles of Narnia but the rather inexplicable reality was Memoirs of Geisha.
Best Visual Effects
Two out of three: King Kong, War of the Worlds. Star Wars: Episode III got the smackdown (voters must have taken the "too busy" criticism seriously). The mediocre effects of Chronicles of Narnia, an alternate pick, made the cut instead.
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
Oscar morning
The nominations are... not very surprising. What seemed like a wide-open year has led to a very straightforward list of nominees. Best Picture and Best Director even matched 5 for 5, not a common occurrence.
That helped with my predictions, and the few major ones I missed I'm mostly glad I did. It's great to see Keira Knightley up for best actress and Munich up for best picture rather than my predictions of Zhang Ziyi and Walk the Line. And I went into the nominations hoping for a few serious noms for A History of Violence. I would've preferred my prediction of David Cronenberg for best director but I shouldn't complain about William Hurt's mildly surprising nom for best supporting actor (and can't really complain at all about Steven Spielberg's director nom "instead" of Cronenberg). It really is too bad voters couldn't support both Amy Adams and Maria Bello in supporting actress but I'm extremely happy Adams got in (seriously, now's the time, rent Junebug).
A quick look at the rest of the noms makes me think I did pretty well (even in foreign film, for a change) but I'll tally it up later.
Quick reactions to a few other categories:
It's GREAT that the animated film nominees are Howl's Moving Castle, Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride and Wallace & Gromit; just as they should be. Way to go animation committee!
I'm surprised the documentary committee actually nominated Darwin's Nightmare, a film with a very strong, important message that is very difficult to watch.
I'm not TOO surprised that the Original Song committee limited their selections to three. They had the option to nominate nothing. I'm strongly backing Dolly Parton here but I think Hustle & Flow might take it (and I feel stupid having predicted the other song from the movie instead of the more obvious choice, the movie's centerpiece: It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp).
I really like seeing Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire nominated in the art direction category. I expected the Oscars to entirely overlook the fourth film in the series, but instead it's the first art direction nominee since the original Potter film (and gives it the same amount of nominations as the more tech-award hyped Star Wars: Episode III).
About the only category Brokeback Mountain unexpectedly missed in was editing, a category usually representative of the best picture nominees. Fellow picture nominee Good Night, and Good Luck. is sitting it out too, in favor of Cinderella Man (editors love boxers) and The Constant Gardener.
Now it's back to bed, zzzzzz...
That helped with my predictions, and the few major ones I missed I'm mostly glad I did. It's great to see Keira Knightley up for best actress and Munich up for best picture rather than my predictions of Zhang Ziyi and Walk the Line. And I went into the nominations hoping for a few serious noms for A History of Violence. I would've preferred my prediction of David Cronenberg for best director but I shouldn't complain about William Hurt's mildly surprising nom for best supporting actor (and can't really complain at all about Steven Spielberg's director nom "instead" of Cronenberg). It really is too bad voters couldn't support both Amy Adams and Maria Bello in supporting actress but I'm extremely happy Adams got in (seriously, now's the time, rent Junebug).
A quick look at the rest of the noms makes me think I did pretty well (even in foreign film, for a change) but I'll tally it up later.
Quick reactions to a few other categories:
It's GREAT that the animated film nominees are Howl's Moving Castle, Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride and Wallace & Gromit; just as they should be. Way to go animation committee!
I'm surprised the documentary committee actually nominated Darwin's Nightmare, a film with a very strong, important message that is very difficult to watch.
I'm not TOO surprised that the Original Song committee limited their selections to three. They had the option to nominate nothing. I'm strongly backing Dolly Parton here but I think Hustle & Flow might take it (and I feel stupid having predicted the other song from the movie instead of the more obvious choice, the movie's centerpiece: It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp).
I really like seeing Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire nominated in the art direction category. I expected the Oscars to entirely overlook the fourth film in the series, but instead it's the first art direction nominee since the original Potter film (and gives it the same amount of nominations as the more tech-award hyped Star Wars: Episode III).
About the only category Brokeback Mountain unexpectedly missed in was editing, a category usually representative of the best picture nominees. Fellow picture nominee Good Night, and Good Luck. is sitting it out too, in favor of Cinderella Man (editors love boxers) and The Constant Gardener.
Now it's back to bed, zzzzzz...
Monday, January 30, 2006
Razzie surprise
Here's a real award season shocker: The Island and Stealth were snubbed by the Razzies!
Two of this summer's biggest disasters, the movies that cemented the great "box office slump" of 2005, combined for a grand total of ZERO Razzie noms. (If you don't know, the Razzies proudly dishonor the worst in film every year.) How Stealth missed out as a Worst Screenplay finalist and both films were snubbed in the Worst Director category is beyond me.
What's so strange about this is that huge Hollywood disasters are usually exactly the kind of movies the Razzies shower with nominations. But this year the voters (anyone willing to shell out cash for a membership) picked on some of the smaller atrocities like Son of the Mask (which got the most nominations, 8, including one for Mrs. Henderson Presents Oscar contender Bob Hoskins), Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo and Jenny McCarthy's blink-and-you-missed-it vanity project Dirty Love. Also passed over were big contenders like Elektra, Aeon Flux and Herbie: Fully Loaded.
The Razzies did get in a few typically absurd noms (sure Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes were an insufferable tabloid target all year long but neither deserved "worst" performance consideration for their work in War of the Worlds and Batman Begins; Cruise was especially strong) but for the most part their targets (Tara Reid, Rob Schneider, Paris Hilton, Jessica Simpson, Jessica Alba, Hayden Christensen, etc.) are hard to argue with.
It may seem harsh to put Will Ferrell up for Worst Actor but that's what he deserves if he can't say no to crap like Bewitched and Kicking and Screaming. (On the other hand why pick on The Rock for Doom? The movie blew but at least it blew a little less when he was on screen.)
I'm proud to say I haven't seen a lot of the nominees but I did have the misfortune of viewing Bewitched, Into the Blue and Alone in the Dark and wholeheartedly agree with all of their nominations.
You gotta love the Razzies. After all if it wasn't for them what else would Uwe Boll aspire to?
Two of this summer's biggest disasters, the movies that cemented the great "box office slump" of 2005, combined for a grand total of ZERO Razzie noms. (If you don't know, the Razzies proudly dishonor the worst in film every year.) How Stealth missed out as a Worst Screenplay finalist and both films were snubbed in the Worst Director category is beyond me.
What's so strange about this is that huge Hollywood disasters are usually exactly the kind of movies the Razzies shower with nominations. But this year the voters (anyone willing to shell out cash for a membership) picked on some of the smaller atrocities like Son of the Mask (which got the most nominations, 8, including one for Mrs. Henderson Presents Oscar contender Bob Hoskins), Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo and Jenny McCarthy's blink-and-you-missed-it vanity project Dirty Love. Also passed over were big contenders like Elektra, Aeon Flux and Herbie: Fully Loaded.
The Razzies did get in a few typically absurd noms (sure Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes were an insufferable tabloid target all year long but neither deserved "worst" performance consideration for their work in War of the Worlds and Batman Begins; Cruise was especially strong) but for the most part their targets (Tara Reid, Rob Schneider, Paris Hilton, Jessica Simpson, Jessica Alba, Hayden Christensen, etc.) are hard to argue with.
It may seem harsh to put Will Ferrell up for Worst Actor but that's what he deserves if he can't say no to crap like Bewitched and Kicking and Screaming. (On the other hand why pick on The Rock for Doom? The movie blew but at least it blew a little less when he was on screen.)
I'm proud to say I haven't seen a lot of the nominees but I did have the misfortune of viewing Bewitched, Into the Blue and Alone in the Dark and wholeheartedly agree with all of their nominations.
You gotta love the Razzies. After all if it wasn't for them what else would Uwe Boll aspire to?
Sunday, January 29, 2006
Oscar Nominee Predictions 2005
I've been doing this since 1998 and I can't say I've gotten any better. It's not a science, but it's fun.
For those of you who are new (or otherwise have no idea what this is about) I list predictions for nominees in every Oscar category except the shorts. I give myself two, and only two, alternate selections that represent what I think will be in place if one of my actual predictions is wrong. I'm usually about 70% right on straight-up predictions, closer to 80% when alternates are included. At my best I'm in the 90% and over range with the top six categories.
These are only predictions. They are not reflective of what I WANT to be nominated (in many cases I'll be angry/annoyed/disappointed when/if some of these things ARE nominated). [For a look at what I'd nominate click here.]
That's the deal, take it for what it's worth. Tuesday morning we'll get the real list.
Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Walk the Line
Alternates: The Constant Gardener; Munich
This is what I've been thinking since the guilds weighed in with their choices. No reason to change my mind now.
Best Director
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
David Cronenberg (A History of Violence)
Paul Haggis (Crash)
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Bennett Miller (Capote)
Alternates: Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener); Steven Spielberg (Munich)
The only other serious contender is James Mangold for Walk the Line. Anyone else would be a bit of a surprise at this point. Spielberg was DGA nominated but he also received guild, but not Oscar, noms for Amistad and Empire of the Sun and the reaction to Munich has been closer to those than any of his other Oscar contenders. Cronenberg has been getting buzz almost all year long as the overdue arty pick, I hope it happens. And Meirelles is looking for his second nom on his second film after surprising pretty much everyone with his nomination for City of God two years ago. Haggis and Miller would be Oscar nominated for directorial debuts.
Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
Alternates: Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man); Ralph Fiennes (The Constant Gardener)
Tough, tough category. Some think Strathairn could be this year's Paul Giamatti (snubbed because he's not "flashy" enough, but I think playing a real person will help him) and Howard is still an underdog. Fiennes, with no Globe or SAG attention for his work, would be the real upset.
Best Actress
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Zhang Ziyi (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Alternates: Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger); Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice)
Joan Allen is becoming a popular prediction despite her lack of prior nominations this season. It's a bit hard for me to believe in a nomination for Zhang but she surprised me with Globe and SAG noms. I'm waiting for a real surprise here. Maybe Laura Linney from The Squid and the Whale (even though it's a supporting performance) or Maria Bello bumped up from supporting for A History of Violence?
Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Terrence Howard (Crash)
Alternates: Don Cheadle (Crash); Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Picking Howard here might be foolish, Cheadle could easily be up for his second straight nom instead. This category is also ripe for a left-field pick like Frank Langella from Good Night, and Good Luck., someone from A History of Violence or another player from Syriana.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Frances McDormand (North Country)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Alternates: Maria Bello (A History of Violence); Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes)
Before SAG I didn't even think a nomination for Adams was possible. I really hope Oscar voters watched Junebug. Since they need the support of Oscar's indie-friendly voters I fear that Adams and Bello can't both make it in, so I'm going with the more endearing performance (plus Bello has been undeservedly snubbed in the past). Speaking of the previously snubbed, I don't expect Scarlett Johansson to actually get in here. This time that's a good thing.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich
Alternates: Pride & Prejudice; Walk the Line
Munich is controversial and History of Violence could be overlooked completely but will writers think nominating Walk the Line is worth it?
Best Original Screenplay
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
Syriana
Alternates: Cinderella Man; Hustle & Flow
Syriana didn't campaign in this category (the studio didn't know Oscar officials had classified the script as original, not adapted, until right before voting closed), so it may miss out. But here's hoping Woody Allen's overrated Match Point script misses instead.
Best Animated Film
Howl's Moving Castle
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Alternates: Chicken Little; Madagascar
It's doubtful the three best animated films of the year actually will be nominated but will the usually taste-challenged animated film voters opt for Disney (Chicken Little, which came out later) or DreamWorks (Madagascar, the highest grossing animated film of the year) and who will they pass over (Burton or Miyazaki)?
Best Foreign Language Film
Fateless (Hungary)
Joyeux Noel (France)
Paradise Now (Palestine)
Sophie Scholl-The Final Days (Germany)
Tsotsi (South Africa)
Alternates: C.R.A.Z.Y. (Canada); Two Sons of Francisco (Brazil)
I did well in this category one year...
Best Documentary (Feature Length)
The Boys of Baraka
Enron: The Smartest Guys In the Room
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Unknown White Male
Alternates: The Devil and Daniel Johnston; Mad Hot Ballroom
This always seems easier than it actually is. The list of possibilities isn't very long but there's always an oddball choice (or two, or three).
Best Art Direction
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk the Line
Alternates: Cinderella Man; The New World
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is a popular pick too but I don't know where to put it.
Best Cinematography
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Alternates: March of the Penguins; Munich
Batman Begins was also nominated by the cinematographers' guild and if The New World is getting any Oscar noms it might be here.
Best Costume Design
Casanova
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
Walk the Line
Alternates: Brokeback Mountain; The Producers
Best Editing
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Alternates: March of the Penguins; Munich
And it might be foolish to ignore Walk the Line...
Best Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia
Cinderella Man
The New World
Alternates: Mrs. Henderson Presents; Star Wars: Episode III
Best Original Score
Brokeback Mountain
Cinderella Man
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Pride & Prejudice
Alternates: King Kong; March of the Penguins
Best Original Song
"Hustle & Flow" (Hustle & Flow)
"In the Deep" (Crash)
"The Remains of the Day" (Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride)
"Same in Any Language" (Elizabethtown)
"Travelin' Thru" (Transamerica)
Alternates: "Mad Hot Ballroom" (Mad Hot Ballroom); "There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway" (The Producers)
Last year voters went a little foreign, so "Dicholo" from The Constant Gardener is a possibility if that happens this year. The only other key contender I can see is "Can't Take It In" from Chronicles of Narnia. It's the first time we actually have a list of "eligible" songs, so predicting this should be a little easier than normal.
Best Sound
Batman Begins
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Walk the Line
Alternates: The Chronicles of Narnia; War of the Worlds
The one everybody waits for...
Best Sound Editing
The Chronicles of Narnia
King Kong
War of the Worlds
Alternates: Star Wars: Episode III; Walk the Line
Best Visual Effects
King Kong
Star Wars: Episode III
War of the Worlds
Alternates: The Chronicles of Narnia; Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
For those of you who are new (or otherwise have no idea what this is about) I list predictions for nominees in every Oscar category except the shorts. I give myself two, and only two, alternate selections that represent what I think will be in place if one of my actual predictions is wrong. I'm usually about 70% right on straight-up predictions, closer to 80% when alternates are included. At my best I'm in the 90% and over range with the top six categories.
These are only predictions. They are not reflective of what I WANT to be nominated (in many cases I'll be angry/annoyed/disappointed when/if some of these things ARE nominated). [For a look at what I'd nominate click here.]
That's the deal, take it for what it's worth. Tuesday morning we'll get the real list.
Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Walk the Line
Alternates: The Constant Gardener; Munich
This is what I've been thinking since the guilds weighed in with their choices. No reason to change my mind now.
Best Director
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
David Cronenberg (A History of Violence)
Paul Haggis (Crash)
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Bennett Miller (Capote)
Alternates: Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener); Steven Spielberg (Munich)
The only other serious contender is James Mangold for Walk the Line. Anyone else would be a bit of a surprise at this point. Spielberg was DGA nominated but he also received guild, but not Oscar, noms for Amistad and Empire of the Sun and the reaction to Munich has been closer to those than any of his other Oscar contenders. Cronenberg has been getting buzz almost all year long as the overdue arty pick, I hope it happens. And Meirelles is looking for his second nom on his second film after surprising pretty much everyone with his nomination for City of God two years ago. Haggis and Miller would be Oscar nominated for directorial debuts.
Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
Alternates: Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man); Ralph Fiennes (The Constant Gardener)
Tough, tough category. Some think Strathairn could be this year's Paul Giamatti (snubbed because he's not "flashy" enough, but I think playing a real person will help him) and Howard is still an underdog. Fiennes, with no Globe or SAG attention for his work, would be the real upset.
Best Actress
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Zhang Ziyi (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Alternates: Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger); Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice)
Joan Allen is becoming a popular prediction despite her lack of prior nominations this season. It's a bit hard for me to believe in a nomination for Zhang but she surprised me with Globe and SAG noms. I'm waiting for a real surprise here. Maybe Laura Linney from The Squid and the Whale (even though it's a supporting performance) or Maria Bello bumped up from supporting for A History of Violence?
Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Terrence Howard (Crash)
Alternates: Don Cheadle (Crash); Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Picking Howard here might be foolish, Cheadle could easily be up for his second straight nom instead. This category is also ripe for a left-field pick like Frank Langella from Good Night, and Good Luck., someone from A History of Violence or another player from Syriana.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Frances McDormand (North Country)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Alternates: Maria Bello (A History of Violence); Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes)
Before SAG I didn't even think a nomination for Adams was possible. I really hope Oscar voters watched Junebug. Since they need the support of Oscar's indie-friendly voters I fear that Adams and Bello can't both make it in, so I'm going with the more endearing performance (plus Bello has been undeservedly snubbed in the past). Speaking of the previously snubbed, I don't expect Scarlett Johansson to actually get in here. This time that's a good thing.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich
Alternates: Pride & Prejudice; Walk the Line
Munich is controversial and History of Violence could be overlooked completely but will writers think nominating Walk the Line is worth it?
Best Original Screenplay
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
Syriana
Alternates: Cinderella Man; Hustle & Flow
Syriana didn't campaign in this category (the studio didn't know Oscar officials had classified the script as original, not adapted, until right before voting closed), so it may miss out. But here's hoping Woody Allen's overrated Match Point script misses instead.
Best Animated Film
Howl's Moving Castle
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Alternates: Chicken Little; Madagascar
It's doubtful the three best animated films of the year actually will be nominated but will the usually taste-challenged animated film voters opt for Disney (Chicken Little, which came out later) or DreamWorks (Madagascar, the highest grossing animated film of the year) and who will they pass over (Burton or Miyazaki)?
Best Foreign Language Film
Fateless (Hungary)
Joyeux Noel (France)
Paradise Now (Palestine)
Sophie Scholl-The Final Days (Germany)
Tsotsi (South Africa)
Alternates: C.R.A.Z.Y. (Canada); Two Sons of Francisco (Brazil)
I did well in this category one year...
Best Documentary (Feature Length)
The Boys of Baraka
Enron: The Smartest Guys In the Room
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Unknown White Male
Alternates: The Devil and Daniel Johnston; Mad Hot Ballroom
This always seems easier than it actually is. The list of possibilities isn't very long but there's always an oddball choice (or two, or three).
Best Art Direction
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk the Line
Alternates: Cinderella Man; The New World
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is a popular pick too but I don't know where to put it.
Best Cinematography
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Alternates: March of the Penguins; Munich
Batman Begins was also nominated by the cinematographers' guild and if The New World is getting any Oscar noms it might be here.
Best Costume Design
Casanova
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
Walk the Line
Alternates: Brokeback Mountain; The Producers
Best Editing
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Alternates: March of the Penguins; Munich
And it might be foolish to ignore Walk the Line...
Best Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia
Cinderella Man
The New World
Alternates: Mrs. Henderson Presents; Star Wars: Episode III
Best Original Score
Brokeback Mountain
Cinderella Man
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Pride & Prejudice
Alternates: King Kong; March of the Penguins
Best Original Song
"Hustle & Flow" (Hustle & Flow)
"In the Deep" (Crash)
"The Remains of the Day" (Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride)
"Same in Any Language" (Elizabethtown)
"Travelin' Thru" (Transamerica)
Alternates: "Mad Hot Ballroom" (Mad Hot Ballroom); "There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway" (The Producers)
Last year voters went a little foreign, so "Dicholo" from The Constant Gardener is a possibility if that happens this year. The only other key contender I can see is "Can't Take It In" from Chronicles of Narnia. It's the first time we actually have a list of "eligible" songs, so predicting this should be a little easier than normal.
Best Sound
Batman Begins
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Walk the Line
Alternates: The Chronicles of Narnia; War of the Worlds
The one everybody waits for...
Best Sound Editing
The Chronicles of Narnia
King Kong
War of the Worlds
Alternates: Star Wars: Episode III; Walk the Line
Best Visual Effects
King Kong
Star Wars: Episode III
War of the Worlds
Alternates: The Chronicles of Narnia; Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Friday, January 27, 2006
Oscar picks 2005
The Oscar nominations for 2005 will be announced on Tuesday but if I got to fill out a ballot (or ran the whole damn show) here's a look at what the selections would be.
[These are NOT my predictions, they're what I would WANT to be nominated. Predictions will be up by Monday.]
First of all I'd add the following category:
Ensemble Cast:
Brokeback Mountain
The 40 Year Old Virgin
Junebug
Me and You and Everyone We Know
Syriana
SAG is one of the few major groups that gives out this prize. But they rarely recognize truly impressive casts, generally preferring to recognize casts from movies that will probably be nominated for Oscar's Best Picture. Each of these ensembles is unique, none have a weak link but one of them towered over everything else this year.
Winner: Syriana
Now on to some actual Oscar categories...
Animated Film:
Howl's Moving Castle
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Picking the year's three best is easy, picking the very best is even easier.
Winner: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Adapted Screenplay:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
A History of Violence
Munich
Mysterious Skin
A highly competitive category this year.
Winner: Brokeback Mountain
Original Screenplay:
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Junebug
Millions
Syriana
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Syriana could be considered adapted, but Oscar classified it as original and that works for me. There's a wide range of material here and I wish the actual Oscars would pay attention to some of these, including my favorite.
Winner: Junebug
Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
Catherine Keener (The 40 Year-Old Virgin)
Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
An excellent category and I think the final Oscar list will actually look a little like this. It also has my favorite performance of the year, in any category.
Winner: Amy Adams (Junebug)
Supporting Actor:
Gerard Butler (Dear Frankie)
Kevin Costner (The Upside of Anger)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Ed Harris (A History of Violence)
Jeffrey Wright (Broken Flowers)
An odd year in this category. I'd seriously consider Syriana's George Clooney and/or Alexander Siddig but to me that movie is an ensemble effort start to finish. I still can hardly believe the actor I'd endorse to win this award this year. But yes, he's that good.
Winner: Kevin Costner (The Upside of Anger)
Actress:
Toni Collette (In Her Shoes)
Emmanuelle Devos (Kings and Queen)
Miranda July (Me and You and Everyone We Know)
Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Not a spectacular year for leading ladies but not as bad as it will look in the Oscar history books. Some of the best work just isn't on Oscar's radar. I wish I had room for North Country's Charlize Theron and Junebug's Embeth Davidtz as well (and I wish I'd seen the L.A. critics' pick: Vera Farmiga in Down to the Bone).
Winner: Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Actor:
Romain Duris (The Beat That My Heart Skipped)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Mysterious Skin)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Viggo Mortensen (A History of Violence)
Last year was a very good year for lead actors, this year was a great one. My five favorites could easily be joined by seven more: Eric Bana (Munich), Steve Carell (The 40-Year-Old Virgin), Daniel Day-Lewis (The Ballad of Jack and Rose), Robert Downey Jr. (Kiss Kiss Bang Bang), Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow), Jonathan Rhys-Meyers (Match Point) and David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck.). Yet one performance still stands out among them all.
Winner: Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Director:
David Cronenberg (A History of Violence)
Stephen Gaghan (Syriana)
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Phil Morrison (Junebug)
Nick Park (Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit)
My director picks don't always match up with my favorite films of the year but in this case they do. Even the animated film and the intimate indie drama are so distinctive it's impossible to overlook the men at the helm.
Winner: Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Best Picture:
Brokeback Mountain
A History of Violence
Junebug
Syriana
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
No surprises here.
Winner: Brokeback Mountain
And the boring technical categories...
Art Direction/Production Design:
Brokeback Mountain
Memoirs of a Geisha
Sin City
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
War of the Worlds
Winner: Sin City
Cinematography:
Brokeback Mountain
A History of Violence
March of the Penguins
Munich
Syriana
Winner: Brokeback Mountain
Costume Design:
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World
Pride & Prejudice
Sin City
2046
Winner: Memoirs of a Geisha
Editing:
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck.
A History of Violence
Munich
Syriana
Winner: Syriana
Original Score:
Brokeback Mountain
A History of Violence
Howl’s Moving Castle
Memoirs of a Geisha
Syriana
Winner: Brokeback Mountain
Visual Effects:
King Kong
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
War of the Worlds
Winner: King Kong
Even I can't work up enthusiasm for the sound categories or make-up. I'm still working on seeing a few more of the year's major documentaries and foreign films (although I know my choices would bear little resemblance to the nominees that emerge from Oscar's arcane selection process) and I haven't heard enough contenders to properly do an Original Song category, though Dolly Parton's Travelin' Thru from Transamerica is a standout even without serious competition.
[These are NOT my predictions, they're what I would WANT to be nominated. Predictions will be up by Monday.]
First of all I'd add the following category:
Ensemble Cast:
Brokeback Mountain
The 40 Year Old Virgin
Junebug
Me and You and Everyone We Know
Syriana
SAG is one of the few major groups that gives out this prize. But they rarely recognize truly impressive casts, generally preferring to recognize casts from movies that will probably be nominated for Oscar's Best Picture. Each of these ensembles is unique, none have a weak link but one of them towered over everything else this year.
Winner: Syriana
Now on to some actual Oscar categories...
Animated Film:
Howl's Moving Castle
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Picking the year's three best is easy, picking the very best is even easier.
Winner: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Adapted Screenplay:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
A History of Violence
Munich
Mysterious Skin
A highly competitive category this year.
Winner: Brokeback Mountain
Original Screenplay:
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Junebug
Millions
Syriana
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Syriana could be considered adapted, but Oscar classified it as original and that works for me. There's a wide range of material here and I wish the actual Oscars would pay attention to some of these, including my favorite.
Winner: Junebug
Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
Catherine Keener (The 40 Year-Old Virgin)
Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
An excellent category and I think the final Oscar list will actually look a little like this. It also has my favorite performance of the year, in any category.
Winner: Amy Adams (Junebug)
Supporting Actor:
Gerard Butler (Dear Frankie)
Kevin Costner (The Upside of Anger)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Ed Harris (A History of Violence)
Jeffrey Wright (Broken Flowers)
An odd year in this category. I'd seriously consider Syriana's George Clooney and/or Alexander Siddig but to me that movie is an ensemble effort start to finish. I still can hardly believe the actor I'd endorse to win this award this year. But yes, he's that good.
Winner: Kevin Costner (The Upside of Anger)
Actress:
Toni Collette (In Her Shoes)
Emmanuelle Devos (Kings and Queen)
Miranda July (Me and You and Everyone We Know)
Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Not a spectacular year for leading ladies but not as bad as it will look in the Oscar history books. Some of the best work just isn't on Oscar's radar. I wish I had room for North Country's Charlize Theron and Junebug's Embeth Davidtz as well (and I wish I'd seen the L.A. critics' pick: Vera Farmiga in Down to the Bone).
Winner: Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Actor:
Romain Duris (The Beat That My Heart Skipped)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Mysterious Skin)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Viggo Mortensen (A History of Violence)
Last year was a very good year for lead actors, this year was a great one. My five favorites could easily be joined by seven more: Eric Bana (Munich), Steve Carell (The 40-Year-Old Virgin), Daniel Day-Lewis (The Ballad of Jack and Rose), Robert Downey Jr. (Kiss Kiss Bang Bang), Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow), Jonathan Rhys-Meyers (Match Point) and David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck.). Yet one performance still stands out among them all.
Winner: Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Director:
David Cronenberg (A History of Violence)
Stephen Gaghan (Syriana)
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Phil Morrison (Junebug)
Nick Park (Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit)
My director picks don't always match up with my favorite films of the year but in this case they do. Even the animated film and the intimate indie drama are so distinctive it's impossible to overlook the men at the helm.
Winner: Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Best Picture:
Brokeback Mountain
A History of Violence
Junebug
Syriana
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
No surprises here.
Winner: Brokeback Mountain
And the boring technical categories...
Art Direction/Production Design:
Brokeback Mountain
Memoirs of a Geisha
Sin City
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
War of the Worlds
Winner: Sin City
Cinematography:
Brokeback Mountain
A History of Violence
March of the Penguins
Munich
Syriana
Winner: Brokeback Mountain
Costume Design:
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World
Pride & Prejudice
Sin City
2046
Winner: Memoirs of a Geisha
Editing:
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck.
A History of Violence
Munich
Syriana
Winner: Syriana
Original Score:
Brokeback Mountain
A History of Violence
Howl’s Moving Castle
Memoirs of a Geisha
Syriana
Winner: Brokeback Mountain
Visual Effects:
King Kong
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
War of the Worlds
Winner: King Kong
Even I can't work up enthusiasm for the sound categories or make-up. I'm still working on seeing a few more of the year's major documentaries and foreign films (although I know my choices would bear little resemblance to the nominees that emerge from Oscar's arcane selection process) and I haven't heard enough contenders to properly do an Original Song category, though Dolly Parton's Travelin' Thru from Transamerica is a standout even without serious competition.
Thursday, January 26, 2006
It's quiet at the movies lately. January is an infamous dumping ground for new releases (camouflaged somewhat by the slowly expanding Oscar contenders) and in most cases it's just as advisable to wait for the DVD as it is to go out to a theater.
In the case of Bubble you actually have that option sooner than usual. Not that this is a run-of-the-mill Hollywood release. Far from it. It's the latest movie from Oscar winner (and my personal favorite director) Steven Soderbergh and it opens in limited arthouse release on Friday. The same day it will make its television debut on HDNet. And beginning Tuesday you can rent or buy it on DVD. It's an unusual strategy but it's the future of distribution, at least according to 2929 Productions' Mark Cuban and Todd Wagner. But that story has been well covered.
What I'm interested in is the movie. It's a weird little experiment of a project, the kind that no other major filmmaker would even attempt (possibly because no other major filmmaker works as much as Soderbergh or because most major filmmakers can't make a movie without feeling they have to put everything they have into it). It's closest in spirit to other Soderbergh oddities like Full Frontal and HBO's K Street but without professional actors, which actually makes it more compelling.
Still the sparse improv-style dialogue and lack of significant events (the bare bones plot involves a love triangle, of sorts, among factory workers on the border of Ohio and West Virginia) will drive a lot of viewers crazy. This is niche filmmaking at its most niche. (Which makes it an odd choice to test drive that new distribution strategy, but also removes a lot of the pressure to perform in a big way. Anyone who sees this movie can't possibly expect it to become a breakout hit in any form of release.)
Bubble often feels like a more-polished-than-usual student film but its unique cast and location make it worth seeing, especially for fans of Soderbergh or offbeat cinema.
Also offbeat, but less successful, is the new Lars Trier scourge Manderlay. It's the second film in a planned trilogy that began with Dogville (which I have not yet seen). I can't say how Manderlay compares to its predecessor but I can say that much like the other two Trier films I've seen it at least inspired a strong response. I loved Breaking the Waves. I thought Dancer in the Dark was stupid and insulting. Unfortunately I found Manderlay to be, well, boring.
Trier frequently courts controversy but both his fans and detractors will have to try extra hard to get worked up over this one. The plot involves a 1930s Southern plantation where slavery is still in practice, despite having been abolished decades earlier. Bryce Dallas Howard (who proves her fantastic debut in The Village was no fluke) stars as a woman determined to right this wrong, but her efforts are not as welcome as one would think (the character was played by Nicole Kidman in Dogville; her father was played by James Caan in that film and an unimpressive Willem DaFoe here; Lauren Bacall, Jeremy Davies and Chloe Sevigny are among the actors who appear in both films but they have nothing significant to do in this one).
It's possible to view the movie as an allegory to George W. Bush's Iraq war as Howard's character forces democracy on the not-quite-ready and not-quite-willing residents of Manderlay. But that reading is simple-minded and undernourished by what's on screen. I doubt it's all that Trier intended. It's hard to say what he intended though as the movie mostly meanders, lacking any interesting characters or provocative ideas until it comes to an outlandish conclusion capped by an absurd closing credits sequence (the only time Trier's wicked provocateur streak truly shines through).
The film retains Dogville's much discussed bare bones theatrical style (and novelistic John Hurt narration) and the effect is striking but can't compensate for the lack of interesting happenings on screen. Save for some tawdry sexual escapades late in the film there's very little to quicken the pulse. And even less to engage the mind.
In the case of Bubble you actually have that option sooner than usual. Not that this is a run-of-the-mill Hollywood release. Far from it. It's the latest movie from Oscar winner (and my personal favorite director) Steven Soderbergh and it opens in limited arthouse release on Friday. The same day it will make its television debut on HDNet. And beginning Tuesday you can rent or buy it on DVD. It's an unusual strategy but it's the future of distribution, at least according to 2929 Productions' Mark Cuban and Todd Wagner. But that story has been well covered.
What I'm interested in is the movie. It's a weird little experiment of a project, the kind that no other major filmmaker would even attempt (possibly because no other major filmmaker works as much as Soderbergh or because most major filmmakers can't make a movie without feeling they have to put everything they have into it). It's closest in spirit to other Soderbergh oddities like Full Frontal and HBO's K Street but without professional actors, which actually makes it more compelling.
Still the sparse improv-style dialogue and lack of significant events (the bare bones plot involves a love triangle, of sorts, among factory workers on the border of Ohio and West Virginia) will drive a lot of viewers crazy. This is niche filmmaking at its most niche. (Which makes it an odd choice to test drive that new distribution strategy, but also removes a lot of the pressure to perform in a big way. Anyone who sees this movie can't possibly expect it to become a breakout hit in any form of release.)
Bubble often feels like a more-polished-than-usual student film but its unique cast and location make it worth seeing, especially for fans of Soderbergh or offbeat cinema.
Also offbeat, but less successful, is the new Lars Trier scourge Manderlay. It's the second film in a planned trilogy that began with Dogville (which I have not yet seen). I can't say how Manderlay compares to its predecessor but I can say that much like the other two Trier films I've seen it at least inspired a strong response. I loved Breaking the Waves. I thought Dancer in the Dark was stupid and insulting. Unfortunately I found Manderlay to be, well, boring.
Trier frequently courts controversy but both his fans and detractors will have to try extra hard to get worked up over this one. The plot involves a 1930s Southern plantation where slavery is still in practice, despite having been abolished decades earlier. Bryce Dallas Howard (who proves her fantastic debut in The Village was no fluke) stars as a woman determined to right this wrong, but her efforts are not as welcome as one would think (the character was played by Nicole Kidman in Dogville; her father was played by James Caan in that film and an unimpressive Willem DaFoe here; Lauren Bacall, Jeremy Davies and Chloe Sevigny are among the actors who appear in both films but they have nothing significant to do in this one).
It's possible to view the movie as an allegory to George W. Bush's Iraq war as Howard's character forces democracy on the not-quite-ready and not-quite-willing residents of Manderlay. But that reading is simple-minded and undernourished by what's on screen. I doubt it's all that Trier intended. It's hard to say what he intended though as the movie mostly meanders, lacking any interesting characters or provocative ideas until it comes to an outlandish conclusion capped by an absurd closing credits sequence (the only time Trier's wicked provocateur streak truly shines through).
The film retains Dogville's much discussed bare bones theatrical style (and novelistic John Hurt narration) and the effect is striking but can't compensate for the lack of interesting happenings on screen. Save for some tawdry sexual escapades late in the film there's very little to quicken the pulse. And even less to engage the mind.
Revisiting Munich
In light of Munich's relative failure at the box office, and disappointing award-season showing, it's worth remembering there are many ways a film can be a success. This article from the UK's Guardian website considers Munich from a historical, political and cinematic perspective and although the writer feels Spielberg comes up short in some areas he still builds as strong a case as I've seen yet for why Munich is a great film.
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
Perfect Marriage
The biggest TV news in some time was announced today: beginning next season UPN and The WB will merge into a single network, dubbed CW (for CBS, which parents UPN, and Warner Bros.). This is likely to make both eternally-struggling mini-networks a lot more powerful and put an end to questions like "what's wrong with UPN's drama development?," "what's wrong with WB's comedy development?" and "which network will die first: UPN or WB?"
It will also make the network TV ratings race a five-network, instead of six-network, game and makes it a very real possibility that sometime soon one of the major three networks could find themself in fifth place in the ratings (or at least key demos). Of course that will take a bit of work from the "upstart" CW network but I think they have the raw materials to do it (including a capable decision maker in UPN's Dawn Ostroff, who will be the new net's entertainment president), and their development is likely to be stronger and richer together than it was separately. And the new network will have much stronger marketing muscle and, most likely, better nationwide carriage. It's like both networks are finally graduating from college.
According to the announcement several shows are pretty much guaranteed to pop up on the new schedule (and there's no surprises among them): Gilmore Girls, Smallville, America's Next Top Model, Beauty and the Geek, Everybody Hates Chris, Veronica Mars, Reba, Girlfriends and WWE Wrestling. WB's 7th Heaven was already calling it quits and the merge could mean the end of the line for struggling WB shows like One Tree Hill and Related, older shows like Charmed and Everwood and nearly all of their comedies. A couple UPN comedies are likely to bite the dust too but that network has less to lose (outside of Veronica they have no dramas on the air besides dead-in-the-water South Beach). It will be interesting to see how the split falls between Warner Bros. and CBS productions.
Here's my take on an obvious CW line-up, although the real schedule is likely to be a bit more creative than this (check out the dream combos on Tuesday and Wednesday):
Sunday
7:00 Charmed
8:00 Everwood
9:00 new reality series
Monday
8:00 Reba
8:30 new comedy series
9:00 Everybody Hates Chris
9:30 Girlfriends
Tuesday
8:00 Gilmore Girls
9:00 Veronica Mars
Wednesday
8:00 America's Next Top Model
9:00 Beauty and the Geek
Thursday
8:00 Smallville
9:00 Supernatural
Friday
8:00 WWE Smackdown
It will also make the network TV ratings race a five-network, instead of six-network, game and makes it a very real possibility that sometime soon one of the major three networks could find themself in fifth place in the ratings (or at least key demos). Of course that will take a bit of work from the "upstart" CW network but I think they have the raw materials to do it (including a capable decision maker in UPN's Dawn Ostroff, who will be the new net's entertainment president), and their development is likely to be stronger and richer together than it was separately. And the new network will have much stronger marketing muscle and, most likely, better nationwide carriage. It's like both networks are finally graduating from college.
According to the announcement several shows are pretty much guaranteed to pop up on the new schedule (and there's no surprises among them): Gilmore Girls, Smallville, America's Next Top Model, Beauty and the Geek, Everybody Hates Chris, Veronica Mars, Reba, Girlfriends and WWE Wrestling. WB's 7th Heaven was already calling it quits and the merge could mean the end of the line for struggling WB shows like One Tree Hill and Related, older shows like Charmed and Everwood and nearly all of their comedies. A couple UPN comedies are likely to bite the dust too but that network has less to lose (outside of Veronica they have no dramas on the air besides dead-in-the-water South Beach). It will be interesting to see how the split falls between Warner Bros. and CBS productions.
Here's my take on an obvious CW line-up, although the real schedule is likely to be a bit more creative than this (check out the dream combos on Tuesday and Wednesday):
Sunday
7:00 Charmed
8:00 Everwood
9:00 new reality series
Monday
8:00 Reba
8:30 new comedy series
9:00 Everybody Hates Chris
9:30 Girlfriends
Tuesday
8:00 Gilmore Girls
9:00 Veronica Mars
Wednesday
8:00 America's Next Top Model
9:00 Beauty and the Geek
Thursday
8:00 Smallville
9:00 Supernatural
Friday
8:00 WWE Smackdown
Monday, January 16, 2006
Golden Globe predictions
Unlike the Oscars, predicting the Golden Globes is not something I do every year. But since I have this blog now I figured I might as well give it a shot. I would not put money on these predictions, since it is the first of the major award shows the Globes are notoriously unpredictable, and in most categories there are at least two contenders I would place equal odds on.
You can see the actual winners beginning at 8 pm tonight on NBC (if you aren't busy watching night two of the 24 season premiere on Fox).
Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Brokeback Mountain; The Constant Gardener; Good Night, and Good Luck.; A History of Violence; Match Point
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain
Some observers have already conceded everything to Brokeback Mountain this year. Others are anxiously waiting for it to stumble. The Globes have made some famously random choices in this category (Scent of a Woman!?) but I don't really think this will be one of those years.
Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)
Nominees: Mrs. Henderson Presents; Pride & Prejudice; The Producers; The Squid and the Whale; Walk the Line
Prediction: Walk the Line
If the Johnny Cash biopic, the only genuine Best Picture Oscar contender in this bunch, loses it would be one of the show's biggest shockers.
Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man); Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote); Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow); Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain); David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
Prediction: Hoffman
This looks like a two man race: Hoffman vs. Ledger. Hoffman has been the more popular pick so far (which mostly means critics' awards) but it will depend on whether voters go with their head (for the showier Hoffman) or hearts (for the more emotionally impactful Ledger). Whoever wins could be on their way to an Oscar. Or not.
Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Nominees: Pierce Brosnan (The Matador); Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale); Johnny Depp (Charlie and the Chocolate Factory); Nathan Lane (The Producers); Cillian Murphy (Breakfast on Pluto); Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
Prediction: Phoenix
None of these guys were as good as the unnominated Steve Carell was in The 40 Year-Old Virgin, but Oscar contender Phoenix should get this pretty easily.
Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Maria Bello (A History of Violence); Felicity Huffman (Transamerica); Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof); Charlize Theron (North Country); Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Prediction: Huffman
If the voters are just looking for the best performance they'll go with Bello but since she's more of a supporting player the best bet is Huffman, who has the showiest role by far (and a good chance at winning two awards tonight).
Actress (Comedy or Musical)
Nominees: Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents); Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice); Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale); Sarah Jessica Parker (The Family Stone); Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Prediction: Witherspoon
Although Dench is formidable competition Witherspoon will be tough to beat. Here's hoping she's on her way to an Oscar.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: George Clooney (Syriana); Matt Dillon (Crash); Will Ferrell (The Producers); Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man); Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Prediction: Clooney
This is tricky, because this year's It Boy, Clooney, could score in other categories and miss here. In that case anyone but Ferrell (what a strange nomination) could take it. A Giamatti win would automatically make him Oscar's frontrunner. A Dillon win would be another scary sign of growing support for Crash.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Scarlett Johansson (Match Point); Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes); Frances McDormand (North Country); Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener); Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Prediction: Weisz
I really don't know what will happen here but everyone who pays attention to this stuff knows that Weisz is campaigning very hard and it seems like that is paying off (plus Globe voters really liked her movie). The Globes usually like 'em young, so count out the older ladies (although MacLaine should win among this group) but Johansson wasn't good enough in her movie (although neither was last year's winner: Natalie Portman) and Williams only wins if the Globes go Brokeback-crazy.
Director
Nominees: Woody Allen (Match Point); George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck.); Peter Jackson (King Kong); Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain); Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener); Steven Spielberg (Munich)
Prediction: Lee
Although voters may want to shake things up and go with Clooney I think Ang Lee is going to be really tough to beat this year (even though he already won this category--for Crouching Tiger).
Screenplay
Nominees: Brokeback Mountain; Crash; Good Night, and Good Luck.; Match Point; Munich
Prediction: Crash
I don't want to predict this but I fear Brokeback won't win everything and I think Good Night is going to fall behind as a screenplay contender.
Foreign Film
Nominees: Kung Fu Hustle; Master of the Crimson Armor (The Promise); Merry Christmas (Joyeux Noel); Paradise Now; Tsotsi
Prediction: Tsotsi
Kung Fu Hustle has the most name recognition but I think the South African Tsotsi will emerge as a popular choice (it's gritty and sentimental) and go on to win the Oscar as well (in a rare Globes/Oscar foreign film match up).
Other categories:
Original Song: A Love That Will Never Grow Old (Brokeback Mountain)
Original Score: Brokeback Mountain
TV:
Drama Series
Nominees: Commander in Chief (ABC); Grey's Anatomy (ABC); Lost (ABC); Prison Break (Fox); Rome (HBO)
Prediction: Grey's Anatomy
Anybody's game and Lost hasn't won yet (Nip/Tuck won last year). But Grey's Anatomy is the hotter show now and that's what Globe voters usually like.
Comedy Series
Nominees: Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); Desperate Housewives (ABC); Entourage (HBO); Everybody Hates Chris (UPN); My Name is Earl (NBC); Weeds (Showtime)
Prediction: My Name is Earl
Since they didn't even nominate the best possible candidate (Fox's Arrested Development), I fully expect the worst of the nominees to win. Although Entourage is a pretty awful, and trendy, pick as well. And Weeds is the kind of show Globe voters would pick just to make themselves look cooler than anyone else.
Drama Actor
Nominees: Patrick Dempsey (Grey's Anatomy); Matthew Fox (Lost); Hugh Laurie (House); Wentworth Miller (Prison Break); Kiefer Sutherland (24)
Prediction: Laurie
The Globes will actually beat Emmy to the punch with this one (even though Emmys were the first to a nomination).
Drama Actress
Nominees: Patricia Arquette (Medium); Glenn Close (The Shield); Geena Davis (Commander in Chief); Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer); Polly Walker (Rome)
Prediction: Sedgwick
Lots of choices here. Davis would be a lock if her show were hotter. Close would be a lock if she wasn't yesterday's news. Since Arquette already won the Emmy and Walker's show has very little heat Sedgwick seems like the fresh pick.
Comedy Actor
Nominees: Zach Braff (Scrubs); Steve Carell (The Office); Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm); Jason Lee (My Name is Earl); Charlie Sheen (Two and a Half Men)
Prediction: Carell
David deserves it, Lee is the favorite, Braff shouldn't be underestimated but I think Carell will wind up with the Globe that he deserves. Just not in the category he deserves it.
Comedy Actress
Nominees: Marcia Cross (Desperate Housewives); Teri Hatcher (Desperate Housewives); Felicity Huffman (Desperate Housewives); Eva Longoria (Desperate Housewives); Mary-Louise Parker (Weeds)
Prediction: Huffman
Since Huffman is likely to win in the film category that could give voters the excuse they're looking for to be different and go with the exceptional Parker. But giving Felicity two awards is good press as well, and given her season so far she deserves it.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Naveen Andrews (Lost); Paul Newman (Empire Falls); Jeremy Piven (Entourage); Randy Quaid (Elvis); Donald Sutherland (Commander in Chief)
Prediction: Newman
These grab-bag categories are ridiculous.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Candice Bergen (Boston Legal); Camryn Manheim (Elvis); Sandra Oh (Grey's Anatomy); Elizabeth Perkins (Weeds); Joanne Woodward (Empire Falls)
Prediction: Oh
These grab-bag categories are ridiculous. But Oh seems like a likely winner.
Other Categories:
Miniseries or TV Movie: Warm Springs (HBO)
Miniseries or TV Movie Actor: Kenneth Branagh (Warm Springs)
Miniseries or TV Movie Actress: S. Epatha Merkerson (Lackawanna Blues)
You can see the actual winners beginning at 8 pm tonight on NBC (if you aren't busy watching night two of the 24 season premiere on Fox).
Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Brokeback Mountain; The Constant Gardener; Good Night, and Good Luck.; A History of Violence; Match Point
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain
Some observers have already conceded everything to Brokeback Mountain this year. Others are anxiously waiting for it to stumble. The Globes have made some famously random choices in this category (Scent of a Woman!?) but I don't really think this will be one of those years.
Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)
Nominees: Mrs. Henderson Presents; Pride & Prejudice; The Producers; The Squid and the Whale; Walk the Line
Prediction: Walk the Line
If the Johnny Cash biopic, the only genuine Best Picture Oscar contender in this bunch, loses it would be one of the show's biggest shockers.
Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man); Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote); Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow); Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain); David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
Prediction: Hoffman
This looks like a two man race: Hoffman vs. Ledger. Hoffman has been the more popular pick so far (which mostly means critics' awards) but it will depend on whether voters go with their head (for the showier Hoffman) or hearts (for the more emotionally impactful Ledger). Whoever wins could be on their way to an Oscar. Or not.
Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Nominees: Pierce Brosnan (The Matador); Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale); Johnny Depp (Charlie and the Chocolate Factory); Nathan Lane (The Producers); Cillian Murphy (Breakfast on Pluto); Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
Prediction: Phoenix
None of these guys were as good as the unnominated Steve Carell was in The 40 Year-Old Virgin, but Oscar contender Phoenix should get this pretty easily.
Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Maria Bello (A History of Violence); Felicity Huffman (Transamerica); Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof); Charlize Theron (North Country); Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Prediction: Huffman
If the voters are just looking for the best performance they'll go with Bello but since she's more of a supporting player the best bet is Huffman, who has the showiest role by far (and a good chance at winning two awards tonight).
Actress (Comedy or Musical)
Nominees: Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents); Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice); Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale); Sarah Jessica Parker (The Family Stone); Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Prediction: Witherspoon
Although Dench is formidable competition Witherspoon will be tough to beat. Here's hoping she's on her way to an Oscar.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: George Clooney (Syriana); Matt Dillon (Crash); Will Ferrell (The Producers); Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man); Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Prediction: Clooney
This is tricky, because this year's It Boy, Clooney, could score in other categories and miss here. In that case anyone but Ferrell (what a strange nomination) could take it. A Giamatti win would automatically make him Oscar's frontrunner. A Dillon win would be another scary sign of growing support for Crash.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Scarlett Johansson (Match Point); Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes); Frances McDormand (North Country); Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener); Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Prediction: Weisz
I really don't know what will happen here but everyone who pays attention to this stuff knows that Weisz is campaigning very hard and it seems like that is paying off (plus Globe voters really liked her movie). The Globes usually like 'em young, so count out the older ladies (although MacLaine should win among this group) but Johansson wasn't good enough in her movie (although neither was last year's winner: Natalie Portman) and Williams only wins if the Globes go Brokeback-crazy.
Director
Nominees: Woody Allen (Match Point); George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck.); Peter Jackson (King Kong); Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain); Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener); Steven Spielberg (Munich)
Prediction: Lee
Although voters may want to shake things up and go with Clooney I think Ang Lee is going to be really tough to beat this year (even though he already won this category--for Crouching Tiger).
Screenplay
Nominees: Brokeback Mountain; Crash; Good Night, and Good Luck.; Match Point; Munich
Prediction: Crash
I don't want to predict this but I fear Brokeback won't win everything and I think Good Night is going to fall behind as a screenplay contender.
Foreign Film
Nominees: Kung Fu Hustle; Master of the Crimson Armor (The Promise); Merry Christmas (Joyeux Noel); Paradise Now; Tsotsi
Prediction: Tsotsi
Kung Fu Hustle has the most name recognition but I think the South African Tsotsi will emerge as a popular choice (it's gritty and sentimental) and go on to win the Oscar as well (in a rare Globes/Oscar foreign film match up).
Other categories:
Original Song: A Love That Will Never Grow Old (Brokeback Mountain)
Original Score: Brokeback Mountain
TV:
Drama Series
Nominees: Commander in Chief (ABC); Grey's Anatomy (ABC); Lost (ABC); Prison Break (Fox); Rome (HBO)
Prediction: Grey's Anatomy
Anybody's game and Lost hasn't won yet (Nip/Tuck won last year). But Grey's Anatomy is the hotter show now and that's what Globe voters usually like.
Comedy Series
Nominees: Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); Desperate Housewives (ABC); Entourage (HBO); Everybody Hates Chris (UPN); My Name is Earl (NBC); Weeds (Showtime)
Prediction: My Name is Earl
Since they didn't even nominate the best possible candidate (Fox's Arrested Development), I fully expect the worst of the nominees to win. Although Entourage is a pretty awful, and trendy, pick as well. And Weeds is the kind of show Globe voters would pick just to make themselves look cooler than anyone else.
Drama Actor
Nominees: Patrick Dempsey (Grey's Anatomy); Matthew Fox (Lost); Hugh Laurie (House); Wentworth Miller (Prison Break); Kiefer Sutherland (24)
Prediction: Laurie
The Globes will actually beat Emmy to the punch with this one (even though Emmys were the first to a nomination).
Drama Actress
Nominees: Patricia Arquette (Medium); Glenn Close (The Shield); Geena Davis (Commander in Chief); Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer); Polly Walker (Rome)
Prediction: Sedgwick
Lots of choices here. Davis would be a lock if her show were hotter. Close would be a lock if she wasn't yesterday's news. Since Arquette already won the Emmy and Walker's show has very little heat Sedgwick seems like the fresh pick.
Comedy Actor
Nominees: Zach Braff (Scrubs); Steve Carell (The Office); Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm); Jason Lee (My Name is Earl); Charlie Sheen (Two and a Half Men)
Prediction: Carell
David deserves it, Lee is the favorite, Braff shouldn't be underestimated but I think Carell will wind up with the Globe that he deserves. Just not in the category he deserves it.
Comedy Actress
Nominees: Marcia Cross (Desperate Housewives); Teri Hatcher (Desperate Housewives); Felicity Huffman (Desperate Housewives); Eva Longoria (Desperate Housewives); Mary-Louise Parker (Weeds)
Prediction: Huffman
Since Huffman is likely to win in the film category that could give voters the excuse they're looking for to be different and go with the exceptional Parker. But giving Felicity two awards is good press as well, and given her season so far she deserves it.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Naveen Andrews (Lost); Paul Newman (Empire Falls); Jeremy Piven (Entourage); Randy Quaid (Elvis); Donald Sutherland (Commander in Chief)
Prediction: Newman
These grab-bag categories are ridiculous.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Candice Bergen (Boston Legal); Camryn Manheim (Elvis); Sandra Oh (Grey's Anatomy); Elizabeth Perkins (Weeds); Joanne Woodward (Empire Falls)
Prediction: Oh
These grab-bag categories are ridiculous. But Oh seems like a likely winner.
Other Categories:
Miniseries or TV Movie: Warm Springs (HBO)
Miniseries or TV Movie Actor: Kenneth Branagh (Warm Springs)
Miniseries or TV Movie Actress: S. Epatha Merkerson (Lackawanna Blues)
Monday, January 09, 2006
Critics get one more say
The last, and often the most interesting, of the major critics groups to announce their picks for the top film achievements of the year is the National Society of Film Critics. The group, which includes 55 major film critics (although only a handful of them actually vote on every single award), waits until January to make their selections. It gives them some extra time to reflect on the year's films and what has been singled out so far.
If NSFC had picked Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture it would've been only the fourth time in 25 years that their selection was the same as both the New York and Los Angeles film critics (all three organizations agreed on L.A. Confidential, Schindler's List and Goodfellas as the best of their respective years). But they didn't. And they didn't even go for popular runner-up History of Violence (it was their runner-up too, although David Cronenberg won Best Director).
Instead their semi-shocking pick was Capote, a very fine film that wasn't getting a lot of attention but all of a sudden is making some noise. The award isn't likely to boost the film's Oscar chances that much (its nominations from the major guilds are far more important), but the win puts the spotlight on something other than Brokeback for a second and assures Capote a spot in the film geek history books. It was not an easy, or immediate, choice and a look at the entire process, as well as a list of winners and runner-ups in all categories is available here.
I'm actually very pleased with the group's choices this year. Their acting prizes went to Capote star Philip Seymour Hoffman, History of Violence supporting actor Ed Harris (who deserves more attention than he's been receiving) and a couple of fine young Southern ladies: Walk the Line's Reese Witherspoon and Junebug's Amy Adams. Additional prizes went to The Squid and the Whale for screenplay (which also won in NY and LA), Grizzly Man for documentary (ditto), Head-On for foreign language film and 2046 for cinematography.
If NSFC had picked Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture it would've been only the fourth time in 25 years that their selection was the same as both the New York and Los Angeles film critics (all three organizations agreed on L.A. Confidential, Schindler's List and Goodfellas as the best of their respective years). But they didn't. And they didn't even go for popular runner-up History of Violence (it was their runner-up too, although David Cronenberg won Best Director).
Instead their semi-shocking pick was Capote, a very fine film that wasn't getting a lot of attention but all of a sudden is making some noise. The award isn't likely to boost the film's Oscar chances that much (its nominations from the major guilds are far more important), but the win puts the spotlight on something other than Brokeback for a second and assures Capote a spot in the film geek history books. It was not an easy, or immediate, choice and a look at the entire process, as well as a list of winners and runner-ups in all categories is available here.
I'm actually very pleased with the group's choices this year. Their acting prizes went to Capote star Philip Seymour Hoffman, History of Violence supporting actor Ed Harris (who deserves more attention than he's been receiving) and a couple of fine young Southern ladies: Walk the Line's Reese Witherspoon and Junebug's Amy Adams. Additional prizes went to The Squid and the Whale for screenplay (which also won in NY and LA), Grizzly Man for documentary (ditto), Head-On for foreign language film and 2046 for cinematography.
Friday, January 06, 2006
Top Ten Films of 2005
Runner-ups to this list are:
The Beat That My Heart Skipped, Jacques Audiard's absorbing tale of a small time crook with dreams of being a concert pianist;
Howl's Moving Castle, the latest animated wonder from Japanese legend Hayao Miyazaki, and one of his most wondrous;
In Her Shoes, another rewarding unexpected departure for director Curtis Hanson;
Judd Apatow's The 40 Year-Old Virgin, the funniest movie of the year;
Me and You and Everyone We Know, in which writer/director/star Miranda July proved quirky isn't always cloying;
and War of the Worlds, Steven Spielberg's other great film this year.
And also The Squid and the Whale, Batman Begins, Land of the Dead, Look at Me, Pride and Prejudice, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.
The Ten:
10. Good Night, and Good Luck.
The Beat That My Heart Skipped, Jacques Audiard's absorbing tale of a small time crook with dreams of being a concert pianist;
Howl's Moving Castle, the latest animated wonder from Japanese legend Hayao Miyazaki, and one of his most wondrous;
In Her Shoes, another rewarding unexpected departure for director Curtis Hanson;
Judd Apatow's The 40 Year-Old Virgin, the funniest movie of the year;
Me and You and Everyone We Know, in which writer/director/star Miranda July proved quirky isn't always cloying;
and War of the Worlds, Steven Spielberg's other great film this year.
And also The Squid and the Whale, Batman Begins, Land of the Dead, Look at Me, Pride and Prejudice, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.
The Ten:
10. Good Night, and Good Luck.
9. MillionsEveryone knows that Bill O'R...er...Sen. Joseph McCarthy is a big-headed, small-minded, blowhard who prefers to smear anyone who has the nerve to disagree with, or even question, him because civil discourse is for commies and traitors. By the way, when did our media become so weak? Thanks to George Clooney's taut little history lesson we can look to the past to see what's lacking in the present.
8. Mysterious SkinIt's one of those cute movies from the U.K. about some plucky kids who find some money and get mixed up with criminals but are just so darned cute you can't believe how cute they are! Except it's not. Director Danny Boyle adds well measured doses of grit, wit and filmmaking polish to this family-friendly movie that is just the right combination of sentimentality and substance.
7. CapoteThe most surprising movie of the year, partly because I never expected something this mature, moving and strangely beautiful from cult provocateur Greg Araki. Working for the first time from source material other than his own warped mind, Araki spun the intriguing tale of two young men living separate lives in the same town, connected by events that have become vague, misleading, memories. Often uncomfortable, but never tawdry, it's a vivid depiction of loss of innocence and discovery of redemption.
6. MunichNot really a bio-picture but instead a film that uses a chapter in the life of Truman Capote to work out complex ideas about the responsibilities of those who exploit others for professional gains, and the emotional prices paid. First time director Bennett Miller works from a script by actor Dan Futterman (based on a book by Gerald Clarke), and creates a stark, subtle and powerful movie that has the cumulative effect of a gut-punch.
5. JunebugSteven Spielberg didn't have to make this movie (and many would prefer he hadn't, not just for political reasons but artistic ones as well), but I'm very glad that he did. One of the great filmmakers of our time struggles with an issue that has no answer. Some people complain that he didn't take sides, but that's the point. What good does taking sides do? Nobody wins. Everybody loses. And this coming from an eternally optimistic filmmaker.
4. SyrianaA genuine American indie that doesn't strive to be hip and/or smug. Imagine that. Everything about this movie says "small" except when you actually pause to consider the full-bodied performances, Angus MacLachlan's big-hearted writing and Phil Morrison's endlessly observant direction. A Southern movie that isn't condescending is interesting enough, but a movie that thoroughly understands and expressly portrays such complex family dynamics is something to treasure.
3. Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-RabbitIt's a fiction, but a fiction so credibly enacted that it feels like it could be real. And that's the true power of Stephen Gaghan's gorgeous patchwork of a film about the politics of oil and the Middle East. The way it unfolds may confuse but it also captivates: its message are clear. By traversing the globe and cutting between characters so frequently the film palpably conveys a feeling of interconnectedness and sweeping conspiracy. The jig is up.
2. A History of ViolenceThe shorts are modern classics and so, finally, is the movie. One of the screen's great buddy teams receive their feature-length due with all the visual imagination and sharp wit fans have come to expect from creator Nick Park. The film retains the boundless charm of the shorts as it slyly sends up scores of classic films (especially horror and action pictures) and introduces some wonderful new characters. Cheese Gromit! Cheese!
1. Brokeback MountainA Canadian director makes a Great American Movie. Shouldn't we be embarrassed, eh? It's not that movies for adults are a lost commodity, just a rare one. But few have been more consistent in delivering them than David Cronenberg. And with this masterwork he's made a film that is as visceral as it is intellectual, satisfying whether you're looking for brutal action scenes or complex themes. A movie that takes sex and violence seriously, but doesn't make them boring.
Oh man, and now a Chinese director has made a Great American Movie? And it's about gay cowboys!?! Does anyone remember when this was one of the riskiest ventures of the year? The subject matter may make it Important but it's the artistry that makes it great. Director Ang Lee, writers Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana and Annie Proulx, a cast led by Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal and the rest of the supremely talented team deliver work worthy of "career best" accolades. What's really amazing is that this tiny little tragic romance packs such a profound emotional wallop.
40-Love
Match Point, the new Woody Allen movie, opens a little bit wider today (after playing exclusively in New York and L.A.). It's Allen's best movie in a long, long time, but that shouldn't be confused with being one of Allen's best ever.
The man has essentially made a movie a year for every year since Annie Hall in 1977. Which is both remarkable and ridiculous. He's been responsible for Annie Hall, Manhattan, Hannah and Her Sisters, The Purple Rose of Cairo, Interiors, Husbands and Wives, Crimes and Misdemeanors, Bullets Over Broadway and Everyone Says I Love You, among others.
Match Point is not on their level. It's closer to, say, Manhattan Murder Mystery. But given his output lately that's pretty impressive (with the exceptions of Anything Else and Shadows & Fog, I've seen every Allen feature released since 1989 and the last three—Melinda & Melinda, Hollywood Ending and Curse of the Jade Scorpion—have been especially painful).
Part of the problem is that although elements of this are "original" coming from Allen—it's a straight-forward drama with thriller elements but virtually no humor; it was filmed in London with a primarily British cast; there are sex scenes! (at times ridiculous, and always very brief, but they're still there)—they can't disguise the overly familiar themes and plotting. Adrian Lyne could've made this movie and no one except the few crazy people who liked Unfaithful would care. It's too long and a little dull but I can't reveal my main complaints without spoiling the plot twists.
I'd still recommend it, based on some mildly clever writing and a truly fantastic lead performance by Jonathan Rhys-Meyers, but don't believe the hype that this is one of the best of Woody's career, or of the year.
The man has essentially made a movie a year for every year since Annie Hall in 1977. Which is both remarkable and ridiculous. He's been responsible for Annie Hall, Manhattan, Hannah and Her Sisters, The Purple Rose of Cairo, Interiors, Husbands and Wives, Crimes and Misdemeanors, Bullets Over Broadway and Everyone Says I Love You, among others.
Match Point is not on their level. It's closer to, say, Manhattan Murder Mystery. But given his output lately that's pretty impressive (with the exceptions of Anything Else and Shadows & Fog, I've seen every Allen feature released since 1989 and the last three—Melinda & Melinda, Hollywood Ending and Curse of the Jade Scorpion—have been especially painful).
Part of the problem is that although elements of this are "original" coming from Allen—it's a straight-forward drama with thriller elements but virtually no humor; it was filmed in London with a primarily British cast; there are sex scenes! (at times ridiculous, and always very brief, but they're still there)—they can't disguise the overly familiar themes and plotting. Adrian Lyne could've made this movie and no one except the few crazy people who liked Unfaithful would care. It's too long and a little dull but I can't reveal my main complaints without spoiling the plot twists.
I'd still recommend it, based on some mildly clever writing and a truly fantastic lead performance by Jonathan Rhys-Meyers, but don't believe the hype that this is one of the best of Woody's career, or of the year.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Union Pride
If I was going to predict the five nominees for the Best Picture Oscar today I would say:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Walk the Line
With the somewhat surprising likely nominees being Capote and Crash. But that's what's indicated by this week's nominations from the significant film guilds: the DGA, the WGA, the SAG and the PGA.
This has been a confusing year when it comes to award predictions. A lot of movies have been disappointing, the Golden Globe selections were unusual and the critics united behind Brokeback Mountain but gave very little indication of what else might be embraced.
Those five films listed above were all selected by the Producers Guild for their top award. The Directors Guild nominated the directors of all the films, except Walk the Line. They opted instead to recognize Steven Spielberg for Munich, the only other film which I think has a serious chance for a Best Picture Oscar nomination.
Usually the Directors are more correct than the Producers, since for three years running the films nominated by DGA have exactly matched Oscar's Best Picture finalists, while the PGA selections have been more erratic. But such facts are reliable only to a point. And the momentum is not really on Munich's side.
Munich failed to secure any mentions from SAG (not a big surprise, since the film's performances are being overlooked everywhere) or a spot on the WGA's list (more significant, since scribes Eric Roth and Tony Kushner are writing icons). Meanwhile, Capote and Crash, previously viewed as underdogs after their Golden Globe snubs, scored with every single guild (as did long standing favorites Brokeback and Good Night). Guild voters are not the same as Oscar voters, but they're a closer approximation than Globe voters are. It says a lot.
Munich also had a disappointing showing at the Globes and has not been widely embraced by critics (of course neither was Crash, but industry people seem to love it anyway).
Anyway, such is the current state of the award race. The only major announcements left before the Oscar nominations will come from the British Academy of Film and Television and the National Society of Film Critics, but they have little to no bearing on the Oscar race.
As for reactions to the Guild noms:
I am upset at the level of attention Crash is receiving, particularly from the DGA (David Cronenberg's omission for his work on A History of Violence is appalling).
I was very pleased to see the script for The 40 Year-Old Virgin in the WGA original screenplay race. They have recognized smart, mainstream comedies in the past (Mean Girls and Clueless come to mind), but it was still a nice surprise.
The SAG nominations look a lot like the Golden Globe acting nominations, although there were notable snubs for History of Violence's Maria Bello, Match Point's Scarlett Johansson and Mrs. Henderson Presents' Bob Hoskins. Crash's Don Cheadle collected his first major nomination this year while Amy Adams' surprise nomination for Junebug is the single best nomination of the year, possibly ever.
In SAG's big ensemble contest (kinda like their version of "Best Picture") Brokeback, Good Night, Capote and Crash will face off with surprise nominee Hustle & Flow (which has a lot of decent actors but such poorly developed female roles it doesn't really merit inclusion). But I'm a little perplexed by the "cast" lists up on SAG's website. Why, for example, are Kate Mara, Roberta Maxwell and Scott Michael Campbell not included in the Brokeback Mountain ensemble? All of their contributions were at least equal to the slightly more recognizable Anna Faris. And where is Amy Ryan in the Capote cast?
SAG's TV nominations aren't worth much discussion although I'm very pleased to see Boston Legal competing as a comedy, I hope the switch for award consideration for that show is permanent. And it's sort of amusing that although Grey's Anatomy is clearly becoming a major award force, series lead Ellen Pompeo still goes unrecognized.
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Walk the Line
With the somewhat surprising likely nominees being Capote and Crash. But that's what's indicated by this week's nominations from the significant film guilds: the DGA, the WGA, the SAG and the PGA.
This has been a confusing year when it comes to award predictions. A lot of movies have been disappointing, the Golden Globe selections were unusual and the critics united behind Brokeback Mountain but gave very little indication of what else might be embraced.
Those five films listed above were all selected by the Producers Guild for their top award. The Directors Guild nominated the directors of all the films, except Walk the Line. They opted instead to recognize Steven Spielberg for Munich, the only other film which I think has a serious chance for a Best Picture Oscar nomination.
Usually the Directors are more correct than the Producers, since for three years running the films nominated by DGA have exactly matched Oscar's Best Picture finalists, while the PGA selections have been more erratic. But such facts are reliable only to a point. And the momentum is not really on Munich's side.
Munich failed to secure any mentions from SAG (not a big surprise, since the film's performances are being overlooked everywhere) or a spot on the WGA's list (more significant, since scribes Eric Roth and Tony Kushner are writing icons). Meanwhile, Capote and Crash, previously viewed as underdogs after their Golden Globe snubs, scored with every single guild (as did long standing favorites Brokeback and Good Night). Guild voters are not the same as Oscar voters, but they're a closer approximation than Globe voters are. It says a lot.
Munich also had a disappointing showing at the Globes and has not been widely embraced by critics (of course neither was Crash, but industry people seem to love it anyway).
Anyway, such is the current state of the award race. The only major announcements left before the Oscar nominations will come from the British Academy of Film and Television and the National Society of Film Critics, but they have little to no bearing on the Oscar race.
As for reactions to the Guild noms:
I am upset at the level of attention Crash is receiving, particularly from the DGA (David Cronenberg's omission for his work on A History of Violence is appalling).
I was very pleased to see the script for The 40 Year-Old Virgin in the WGA original screenplay race. They have recognized smart, mainstream comedies in the past (Mean Girls and Clueless come to mind), but it was still a nice surprise.
The SAG nominations look a lot like the Golden Globe acting nominations, although there were notable snubs for History of Violence's Maria Bello, Match Point's Scarlett Johansson and Mrs. Henderson Presents' Bob Hoskins. Crash's Don Cheadle collected his first major nomination this year while Amy Adams' surprise nomination for Junebug is the single best nomination of the year, possibly ever.
In SAG's big ensemble contest (kinda like their version of "Best Picture") Brokeback, Good Night, Capote and Crash will face off with surprise nominee Hustle & Flow (which has a lot of decent actors but such poorly developed female roles it doesn't really merit inclusion). But I'm a little perplexed by the "cast" lists up on SAG's website. Why, for example, are Kate Mara, Roberta Maxwell and Scott Michael Campbell not included in the Brokeback Mountain ensemble? All of their contributions were at least equal to the slightly more recognizable Anna Faris. And where is Amy Ryan in the Capote cast?
SAG's TV nominations aren't worth much discussion although I'm very pleased to see Boston Legal competing as a comedy, I hope the switch for award consideration for that show is permanent. And it's sort of amusing that although Grey's Anatomy is clearly becoming a major award force, series lead Ellen Pompeo still goes unrecognized.
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
Top Ten Albums of 2005
When it comes to making best-of lists for music I inevitably feel like I'm leaving something out, probably because I haven't heard it yet. But one of the best things about yearly top ten album lists is I discover a lot of new music to listen to.
So with that in mind, a brief acknowledgment of 2004 releases that I first discovered and/or came to love in 2005: The Arcade Fire's Funeral, Bebel Gilberto's Bebel Gilberto, A.C. Newman's The Slow Wonder, Tegan & Sara's So Jealous and Spalding Rockwell's Kate.
No doubt there were some great albums that I would really love released in 2005 that I simply haven't heard yet, but among those that I did listen to and love over the past year were: Ben Folds' Songs for Silverman, Spoon's Gimme Fiction, Martha Wainwright's Martha Wainwright, The Go-Betweens' Oceans Apart, Queens of the Stone Age's Lullabies to Paralyze, Madonna's Confessions on a Dance Floor, The Like's Are You Thinking What I'm Thinking?, Death Cab For Cutie's Plans, Coldplay's X&Y, Carla Bruni's Quelqu'un M'a Dit, Doves' Some Cities, Common's Be and Garbage's Bleed Like Me.
But the following were my ten (plus) favorites:
10. Employment (Kaiser Chiefs)/You Could Have It So Much Better (Franz Ferdinand)
So with that in mind, a brief acknowledgment of 2004 releases that I first discovered and/or came to love in 2005: The Arcade Fire's Funeral, Bebel Gilberto's Bebel Gilberto, A.C. Newman's The Slow Wonder, Tegan & Sara's So Jealous and Spalding Rockwell's Kate.
No doubt there were some great albums that I would really love released in 2005 that I simply haven't heard yet, but among those that I did listen to and love over the past year were: Ben Folds' Songs for Silverman, Spoon's Gimme Fiction, Martha Wainwright's Martha Wainwright, The Go-Betweens' Oceans Apart, Queens of the Stone Age's Lullabies to Paralyze, Madonna's Confessions on a Dance Floor, The Like's Are You Thinking What I'm Thinking?, Death Cab For Cutie's Plans, Coldplay's X&Y, Carla Bruni's Quelqu'un M'a Dit, Doves' Some Cities, Common's Be and Garbage's Bleed Like Me.
But the following were my ten (plus) favorites:
10. Employment (Kaiser Chiefs)/You Could Have It So Much Better (Franz Ferdinand)
9. Illinois (Sufjan Stevens)A tie between Franz Ferdinand's follow-up album that delivers on the promise of a fantastic debut and Kaiser Chiefs' fantastic debut. Although Franz's album isn't as immediately catchy as their first it's more varied (nice ballads guys!), grows with each listen and includes the best single of the year in "Do You Want To." And the Chiefs delivered what Franz did last year: a solid, fun debut album that never wears out its welcome.
Employment key tracks: I Predict a Riot; Oh My God; Saturday Night; Caroline, Yes
You Could... key tracks: The Fallen; Do You Want To; Eleanor Put Your Boots On; Fade Together
8. Get Lifted (John Legend)/Late Registration (Kanye West)If the absurdly long (often exclamatory) song titles and the lyrics built around the history of Illinois (there's even a song devoted to serial killer John Wayne Gacy) make this sound overly precious, well... it is. Yet somehow it works.
Key tracks: Come On! Feel the Illinoise!; Decatur, or, Round of Applause For Your Stepmother!; Chicago; The Man of Metropolis Steals Our Hearts
7. Brandi Carlile (Brandi Carlile)There's no stopping Kanye West right now, the pre-eminent force in hip hop released a second album that was a worthy successor to last year's debut and produced a fantastic neo-soul album for protege John Legend (and a solid effort for rapper Common). You hate to feed the guy's already corpulent ego but who can resist music this good? Especially Legend's knock-out punch, the stirring ballad "Ordinary People."
Lifted key tracks: Let's Get Lifted; Number One; Ordinary People; So High
Registration key tracks: Touch the Sky; Gold Digger; Gone; Diamonds From Sierra Leone
6. Z (My Morning Jacket)This debut album is as assured as it is unheralded. Carlile's voice and style have garnered comparisons to Jeff Buckley but with these ten remarkable songs she's already well on her way to carving out her own musical identity.
Key tracks: Follow; Closer to You; Fall Apart Again; Gone
5. Silent Alarm (Bloc Party)Although it's their fourth album, this was my proper introduction to My Morning Jacket. I've been told it's a more focused effort that has provided them with more attention then they've ever received. It's not hard to understand why.
Key tracks: Wordless Chorus; Gideon; What a Wonderful Man; Off the Record
4. Thunder, Lightning, Strike (The Go! Team)Their lyrics are like deep man, but chances are you'll be too busy rocking out to the music to notice. No question, the rock debut of the year.
Key tracks: Like Eating Glass; Banquet; Blue Light; This Modern Love
3. Get Behind Me Satan (The White Stripes)Hip-hop, electronica and indie rock collide, with cheerleader chants thrown in for good measure, in the most weirdly addictive album of the year. This indie dance mish-mash borrows from the most unexpected sources and has an energy that's impossible to resist.
Key tracks: Feel Good By Numbers; Friendship Update; Hold Yr Terror Close; Huddle Formation
2. Twin Cinema (The New Pornographers)The best contemporary rock band got even stronger with the summer release of this staggeringly diverse collection of songs. I'm not sure there's a musician alive today whose love of music, in all its forms, is more instantly apparent than Jack White.
Key tracks: Blue Orchid; My Doorbell; Forever For Her (Is Over For Me); Little Ghost
1. Extraordinary Machine (Fiona Apple)After three albums the Pornographers seem to be reaching wider audiences and greater acclaim, but still not at the level they deserve. An unusual indie "supergroup" (of sorts) the group's main members (A.C. Newman, Neko Case and Dan Bejar) have all recorded on their own but their joint efforts are pure magic: power pop that is never overcooked. Twin Cinema is their most restrained effort yet but give the album at least two listens and the hooks won't leave your mind anytime soon.
Key tracks: Use It; The Bleeding Heart Show; These Are the Fables; Sing Me Spanish Techno
For awhile I thought this project might be lost forever. Then came the news that the original recordings, produced by frequent Apple collaborator Jon Brion, had been leaked online. The Brion tracks were excellent (and remain worth seeking out) but it's the Michael Elizondo-produced form in which the album finally reached shelves that finds Fiona moving beyond the lofty musical and lyrical heights she had already reached. It's everything a serious fan, like myself, could ask for. Track for track, it's the album of the year.
Key tracks: Extraordinary Machine; Tymps (The Sick in the Head Song); Not About Love; Waltz (Better Than Fine); Jon Brion version: Better Version of Me
Monday, January 02, 2006
Curbing cowboy enthusiasm
The best piece of comedy inspired by Brokeback Mountain yet, possibly as good as it will get, ran yesterday in the New York Times and is also reprinted here (if you don't want to sign up for the Times web access).
It kind of makes you wish Seinfeld was still on the air, this has the makings of a great subplot.
It kind of makes you wish Seinfeld was still on the air, this has the makings of a great subplot.
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